Reform UK posts polling gains

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has held onto a polling lead in Britain in May 2026, according to recent voting-intention surveys published after the party’s strong local-election performance earlier this month. The latest publicly available polls from YouGov and Opinium both showed Reform ahead of Labour and the Conservatives, while broader poll-of-polls models also placed Farage’s party in first place. GB News circulated commentary on May 21 about Reform’s gains, but the underlying shift was already visible in polling published earlier in the month and in the fallout from the May 7 local elections. The available data points do not all use the same fieldwork dates or methods. But across several measures, Reform was leading national vote-intention surveys in mid-May and benefiting from Labour’s post-election difficulties. ### Which polls showed Reform UK ahead? YouGov said on May 6 that its latest Westminster voting-intention poll, based on fieldwork from May 4-5, put Reform UK on 25%, Labour on 18%, the Conservatives on 17%, the Greens on 15% and the Liberal Democrats on 14%. Opinium said its poll, based on fieldwork from May 6-8, put Reform UK on 28%, Labour on 19%, the Conservatives on 18%, the Greens on 16% and the Liberal Democrats on 11%. Opinium said Reform “continues to lead” its voting-intention measure. More in Common said its latest public-opinion tracker was updated with fieldwork from May 15-19, though the search result available here did not display topline vote shares in the snippet. (yougov.com) The tracker nonetheless confirms that fresh mid-May polling was in the field after the local-election results. ### Did the local elections help explain the polling move? (opinium.com) May 8 local-election reporting showed Reform making large gains across England as Labour lost support in many areas. Reuters reported that Labour suffered heavy early losses in English local elections while Reform gained ground, deepening pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer. (moreincommon.org.uk) Bloomberg reported on May 8 that Reform had logged a net gain of 1,308 seats with more than 80% of English councils declared, while Labour was down 1,179. Reuters-based pickup coverage published by Al Arabiya on May 20 said Reform had made “extensive gains” across England in results earlier this month. (usnews.com) Nigel Farage described the result as a “historic shift in British politics,” according to reporting by The Independent on May 8. That language was part of a broader effort by Reform to argue its gains were not a one-off protest vote. ### Why were commentators linking this to Labour’s internal tensions? (bloomberg.com) Opinium said its May poll also pointed to weak ratings for Starmer and wider unease inside Labour’s coalition. The poll found 56% of respondents believed Starmer should resign as Labour leader, while Andy Burnham was the most preferred replacement among figures tested. (independent.co.uk) That made Labour’s internal position part of the same political story as Reform’s rise. Reuters reported on May 8 that the election losses increased doubts about Starmer’s ability to govern, even as he said he would stay in office to “deliver change.” ### Are all polling measures showing the same scale of lead? (opinium.com) Electoral Calculus said its May 2026 poll-of-polls model projected Reform on 26.8% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 18.7% and the Conservatives on 18.1%. Because that model aggregates polling rather than publishing a single new survey, it points to the same direction of travel but should not be read as a standalone poll. (usnews.com) Different pollsters have shown different margins. YouGov’s early-May poll gave Reform a seven-point lead over Labour, while Opinium put the gap at nine points. Those differences reflect separate samples and fieldwork windows, but both placed Reform in first. ### What should readers watch next? (electoralcalculus.co.uk) More in Common said its latest tracker used fieldwork from May 15-19, and further UK voting-intention releases from major pollsters are likely to test whether Reform’s post-election lead holds. The next concrete markers will be fresh Westminster polls from firms such as YouGov, Opinium and Ipsos, alongside any new council-level or constituency modeling that measures whether Reform’s May gains are sustained into late May and June. (yougov.com) (moreincommon.org.uk)