NOAA predicts 8 to 14 named storms

NOAA forecast a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, saying the basin is likely to produce eight to 14 named storms between June 1 and November 30. The agency said three to six of those storms are expected to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. (noaa.gov) NOAA assigned a 55% chance to a below-normal season, a 35% chance to a near-normal season and a 10% chance to an above-normal season. The outlook does not change NOAA’s preparedness message. The agency said coastal and near-coastal residents, businesses and government agencies should prepare for every hurricane season regardless of the forecast. (noaa.gov) NOAA’s release pointed readers to the National Hurricane Center, Ready.gov, the Small Business Administration and the American Red Cross for preparedness information. ### Why is NOAA expecting fewer Atlantic storms this year? El Niño is one of the main reasons NOAA cited for the quieter Atlantic outlook. NOAA said El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82% chance in May-July 2026, and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, a pattern that can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. (noaa.gov) The Climate Prediction Center said the 2026 predicted Accumulated Cyclone Energy range is centered just above the cutoff between below-normal and near-normal, with the upper end of the range still in the near-normal category. NOAA also said seasonal outlooks are not landfall forecasts and do not predict where storms will strike. (noaa.gov) ### What exactly counts as a named storm, a hurricane and a major hurricane? NOAA defined a named storm as a system with winds of 39 mph or higher. The agency said hurricanes have winds of 74 mph or higher, while major hurricanes are Category 3, 4 or 5 systems with winds of 111 mph or higher. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The 70% confidence level NOAA attached to its ranges means the agency is expressing uncertainty even within a below-normal outlook. That is why NOAA’s statement paired the seasonal forecast with a separate call for preparation before the season opens. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### When does the Atlantic season start, and what names come first? June 1 is the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, and NOAA said the season runs through November 30. The National Hurricane Center has already begun its routine tropical outlook schedule ahead of that date. (noaa.gov) ABC News reported that the first five names on the Atlantic list this season are Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard. Those names are used sequentially as storms reach tropical-storm strength. (noaa.gov) ### Does a quieter Atlantic season mean less risk for coastal residents? NOAA said no seasonal outlook can predict how many storms will make landfall or where they may hit. The agency’s advisory said it is crucial for residents, businesses and government agencies in coastal and near-coastal regions to prepare every year, regardless of whether the season is forecast to be above, near or below normal. (noaa.gov) The National Hurricane Center’s public information page on Friday highlighted NOAA’s forecast and its 2026 hurricane webinar series, underscoring that pre-season preparation is already underway. (abcnews.go.com) ### What is happening in the Pacific at the same time? USA Today reported that the Eastern Pacific is expected to have a busier-than-normal season this year because of El Niño conditions. NOAA’s Atlantic outlook and broader climate updates both pointed to El Niño as a key driver in 2026. May 15 marked the start of the Eastern Pacific season, while June 1 is the Atlantic start date. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) NOAA’s Atlantic forecast was released on May 21 at a news conference in Lakeland, Florida, according to the agency’s advisory. (nhc.noaa.gov) ### What should people watch next? June 1 is the next major date for Atlantic storm tracking, when the official season begins basin-wide. NOAA said updates, preparedness guidance and storm information are available through the National Hurricane Center and related federal preparedness sites. (noaa.gov) (usatoday.com 1) (usatoday.com 2)