Freight capacity keeps rates high
Tight freight capacity has pushed freight rates higher for three straight quarters despite softer volumes, tightening out‑bound logistics costs for shippers and 3PLs. That pressure compounds operating-cost increases and may widen rent‑vs‑cost gaps for tenants in the short term. (dcvelocity.com)
The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index shows national truck shipments rose 1.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025 while shipper spending jumped 4.6% Q/Q, and spending climbed 7.9% over the past three quarters even though shipments rose just 1.0% in that span. (secure.businesswire.com) Compared with Q4 2024, national shipment volumes were down 4.9%—the fifteenth consecutive quarter of year‑over‑year decline—but that was the smallest YoY drop since Q2 2022, and diesel averaged 5.2 cents per gallon lower than Q3, indicating the higher spend was driven by capacity, not fuel. (secure.businesswire.com) Regionally, U.S. Bank data shows the West and Southeast contracted in Q4 2025 while the Southwest, Midwest and Northeast posted sequential shipment gains between 3.5% and 5.4%, yet all five regions recorded sequential increases in shipper spending. (secure.businesswire.com) Prologis research recorded a 4.5% year‑over‑year decline in U.S. logistics rents for 2025, with coastal markets down 7.6% YoY and inland markets down about 3% YoY, underscoring that rents have softened even as outbound transportation costs rise. (supplychaindive.com) Industry analysis highlights margin pressure for 3PLs: Capstone Partners reported a “freight recession” and tariff volatility weighing on 3PL profitability and M&A activity, and an industry survey of more than 600 warehouses tracked rising owner and customer warehousing costs in 2025. (capstonepartners.com) Market commentary shows landlords across asset classes are offering more concessions amid higher supply, and trade commentary specifically notes that added logistics and transportation costs frequently prompt tenants to seek lease concessions or restructures, a mechanism that can widen short‑term rent‑vs‑cost gaps. (transwestern.com) U.S. Bank processes roughly $46 billion in freight payments annually through its Freight Payment platform, giving the index broad coverage of shipper spend trends; carrier caution on capacity expansion in Q4 2025 is cited by industry reports as a key factor that could keep outbound logistics costs elevated. (secure.businesswire.com)
