Hormuz still closed, energy risks rise

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is still in place, but the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal commercial traffic. (apnews.com) (cnbc.com) President Donald Trump said on April 21 that the United States would extend the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request while waiting for a new Iranian proposal. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly thanked Trump for the extension. (apnews.com) (msn.com) That truce did not reopen the waterway. Reuters reported on April 21 that only three ships passed through Hormuz in the previous 24 hours, and CNBC reported the next day that traffic was still only a fraction of the prewar norm of more than 100 vessels a day. (msn.com) (cnbc.com) Hormuz is the narrow exit for Gulf oil and gas cargoes, so even a partial shutdown scrambles tanker schedules, insurance pricing and refinery buying plans. NPR reported on April 28 that control of the strait remains one of the two main issues blocking a broader peace deal. (npr.org) (pbs.org) Shipping companies are acting as if the route is still unsafe. Lloyd’s List reported on April 27 and 28 that transits more than halved again after a brief reopening attempt, with more than 150 tankers still trapped in the Gulf and only a trickle of non-Iranian ships willing to pass. (lloydslist.com) The immediate risk is not only closure but coercion inside the lane. CNBC, citing United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations warnings and ship-tracking data, reported Iranian forces seized two container ships on April 22 and that recent attacks left at least one cargo vessel stopped in the water. (cnbc.com) Pakistan sits at the center of the diplomacy and the vulnerability. It has emerged as the main intermediary between Washington and Tehran, but Pakistan’s own petroleum secretary told a Senate committee in March that the country had crude stocks for 11 days, diesel for 21 days and petrol for 27 days. (cfr.org) (tribune.com.pk) That means mediation has bought time without solving the shipping problem. Pakistan was simultaneously trying to secure Iranian permission for four Pakistani vessels to carry oil through Hormuz while warning lawmakers that 70% of its petroleum products come from the Middle East. (tribune.com.pk) (aljazeera.com) Iran has floated reopening Hormuz if the United States lifts its blockade and the war ends, but U.S. officials have not accepted that trade. PBS reported on April 28 that the offer was passed through Pakistan and would leave the core disputes that triggered the war unresolved. (pbs.org) (telegraph.co.uk) So the market is left with a ceasefire on paper and a chokepoint still operating under threat. Until ships, insurers and navies all treat Hormuz as reliably open again, the energy shock has not really ended. (lloydslist.com) (npr.org)