China trade hiccup

China’s export machine slowed sharply in March, even as the country paid far more for goods coming in. (cnbc.com) China’s customs data showed exports rose 2.5% from a year earlier in March, down from a combined 21.8% jump in January and February and below the 8.6% growth economists polled by Reuters expected. Imports climbed 27.8%, the fastest pace since November 2021. (cnbc.com) That left China with a March trade surplus of about $51.1 billion, after exports reached $321.03 billion and imports hit $269.9 billion. The surplus narrowed as import values swelled. (scmp.com) The March figures landed as war-related disruption in the Middle East pushed up shipping, commodity and energy costs. China’s customs vice minister Wang Jun said oil prices had seen “fierce fluctuation” and the trade environment had become “complex and severe.” (cnbc.com) Analysts said the import surge reflected prices more than demand. South China Morning Post reported copper ore import values jumped nearly 67% from a year earlier while volumes rose about 10%, and integrated circuit import values rose nearly 54% while volumes increased 14%. (scmp.com) Exports were hit from the other side of the ledger. Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management told CNBC that uncertainty in the global outlook, driven by the Middle East conflict, likely weighed on demand. (cnbc.com) The timing also matters. China publishes combined trade data for January and February because the Lunar New Year shifts on the calendar, and Caixin argued the weak March comparison was amplified by seasonal distortions and a high base from March 2025. (cnbc.com, (caixinglobal.com) China is still leaning heavily on trade to support growth. CNBC reported net exports accounted for about one-third of China’s economy last year, while Beijing has set a 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5%. (cnbc.com, (scmp.com) The next read on whether March was a one-month shock or the start of a broader slowdown comes with China’s first-quarter economic data. For now, the trade numbers show a country still selling abroad, but at a slower pace and at a higher import bill. (scmp.com)