AAA forecasts 45M Memorial Day travelers

AAA said on May 11 that 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday period from Thursday, May 21, through Monday, May 25. The forecast is slightly above 2025’s 44.8 million travelers and would set a new record for the holiday, according to the auto club. AAA said 39.1 million people are expected to drive and 3.66 million are expected to fly. The group defines the Memorial Day travel period as trips of 50 miles or more. ### Why is this forecast getting attention if last year was already a record? AAA said 2025 set the prior high at 44.8 million travelers, and this year’s 45 million forecast would edge past it. The group said the increase is modest in absolute terms, but enough to establish another Memorial Day record. The 2024 benchmark had been 43.8 million, according to AAA’s earlier holiday release, which shows the holiday travel count has climbed for three straight years. AAA’s forecast covers domestic leisure travelers going at least 50 miles from home. ### Where are most of those trips happening? AAA said driving remains the dominant mode, with 39.1 million travelers expected to go by car, or about 87% of the total. (newsroom.aaa.com) Air travel is forecast at 3.66 million passengers. The remainder will travel by other modes such as bus, train or cruise, based on the difference between the total forecast and the car-and-air counts cited in AAA-linked reports. (newsroom.aaa.com) Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said in the organization’s release that Memorial Day marks the unofficial start of summer and gives many Americans a three-day weekend to visit friends and family. AAA said travelers are continuing to prioritize trips despite higher costs in some categories. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### When will the roads be most crowded? INRIX and AAA said the heaviest road congestion is expected on Thursday, May 21, and Friday, May 22, especially from late morning into the evening. A Yahoo Creators report citing AAA listed the worst windows as noon to 9 p.m. on Thursday, 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Friday, noon to 5 p.m. on Saturday, and noon to 5 p.m. on Monday. (newsroom.aaa.com) USA Today and Axios, citing INRIX data, said travelers hoping to avoid the worst traffic should leave early in the morning or later at night. Sunday is expected to be lighter than the main departure and return days, according to related traffic guidance. ### What does the forecast say about airports and prices? (creators.yahoo.com) AAA-linked coverage said average airfares are lower than a year earlier even as flying volumes are expected to rise to 3.66 million travelers. At the same time, some regional reports said gasoline prices are higher than last Memorial Day, even with driving still expected to account for the vast majority of trips. (usatoday.com) NBC Washington, citing AAA, said heavy airport traffic and crowded highways are both likely over the five-day holiday period. The travel group also published lists of popular domestic and international destinations, with Orlando among the leading U.S. spots and Rome among the top overseas choices. (z93country.com) ### Why does a travel forecast matter beyond vacation planning? The 45 million figure matters for retailers, carriers and delivery operators because holiday travel changes when and where consumers place orders, seek support and expect packages to arrive. The Yahoo report tied the forecast to shifts in purchasing windows and last-mile delivery expectations over the holiday weekend. (nbcwashington.com) AAA’s next public updates are likely to center on real-time traffic, gas prices and destination demand as the May 21-25 travel window begins, with INRIX traffic guidance already posted for drivers planning departure times. (newsroom.aaa.com)