Bank of America’s humanoid forecast
Bank of America projected up to 3 billion humanoids by 2060 and estimated bill‑of‑materials costs could fall to about $17K per unit by 2030 — a strikingly aggressive industrialization thesis for physical AI. The forecast frames a rapid cost curve that would reshape demand and manufacturing for embedded robotics argued.
Bank of America published "Physical AI, part 2: Humanoid robots" on March 12, 2026, authored by Lynelle Huskey and Vanessa Cook. (institute.bankofamerica.com) The report’s shipment curve shows annual global humanoid deliveries climbing from roughly 20,000 units in 2025 to about 90,000 in 2026, 1.2 million in 2030 and 10 million by 2035. (institute.bankofamerica.com) BofA forecasts household deployments will eventually dominate—about 62% of units by 2060—while Counterpoint data cited in the note predicts 72% of early installations by 2027 will be concentrated in warehousing/logistics (33%), automotive (24%) and manufacturing (15%). (institute.bankofamerica.com) The bank models material-cost trajectories with China‑sourced BOMs near $35,000 in 2025 and further declines into a $13,000–$17,000 range in the early 2030s as manufacturing scales. (techwireasia.com) Bank of America documents a funding ramp for humanoid ventures from about $0.7 billion in 2018 to roughly $4.3 billion in 2025, citing investor interest as a key enabler of the scale-up. (aol.com) The note highlights "industrial overlap" — leveraging EV supply chains and improvements in batteries, motors, sensors, actuators and onboard AI compute — and records that by January 2026 more than 50 companies were actively developing humanoids with about 150 commercial product launches recorded. (institute.bankofamerica.com)
