Anthropic report cites Nvidia China share drop to 55%

Anthropic published a policy paper on May 14 arguing that the United States should tighten export controls on advanced AI chips to preserve what it described as an American and allied lead over China. The paper, titled “2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership,” says access to computing power remains the central constraint in frontier AI development and warns that loopholes in current controls could allow Chinese firms to narrow the gap. (anthropic.com) Anthropic said the outcome of that competition could shape who sets the rules and norms around advanced AI systems. (money.usnews.com) The company framed the paper around two hypothetical 2028 outcomes — one in which democracies keep a “commanding and expanding lead,” and another in which China catches up or overtakes the United States. ### What exactly did Anthropic publish on May 14? Anthropic posted the paper on its research site on May 14 under the title “2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership.” The company said the document explains its view of AI competition between the United States and China and lays out policy steps it believes are needed to keep the U.S. ahead. The paper says “the most important ingredient for developing AI is access to the computer chips on which the models are trained,” and it argues that existing U.S. export controls have already constrained China’s supply of the most capable chips. Anthropic said Chinese labs have remained close to U.S. systems through talent, loopholes around export controls and “large-scale distillation attacks” that it said extract innovations from American companies. (anthropic.com) ### Where does the Nvidia 55% figure come from? Reuters reported on April 1 that IDC data it reviewed showed Nvidia shipped about 2.2 million AI accelerator cards in China in 2025, giving it a 55% share of that market. The same data showed Chinese vendors collectively shipped 1.65 million cards, or 41% of the total, while AMD held about 4%. (anthropic.com) Anthropic’s paper cites that shift as evidence that China’s domestic suppliers are gaining ground as U.S. restrictions cut off access to Nvidia’s most advanced products. Reuters said the gains by Chinese chipmakers came as Beijing pushed government agencies and companies toward domestic alternatives and as local governments accelerated AI infrastructure projects with implicit directives to “buy Chinese.” (anthropic.com) ### What is Anthropic asking Washington to do? Anthropic said policymakers should “tighten export controls further” and close loopholes that still allow the Chinese Communist Party access to compute. (money.usnews.com) The paper says that in its preferred scenario, governments also disrupt distillation attacks and accelerate AI adoption across democratic countries. The company’s argument is direct: if Washington does not act, China could “catch up to the frontier and even overtake America,” according to the paper. Anthropic said that outcome would leave AI norms and rules shaped by “authoritarian regimes” and could enable “automated repression at scale.” (money.usnews.com) ### How does this fit into the broader U.S.-China chip fight? April 1 IDC figures reviewed by Reuters showed how much the market has shifted since successive rounds of U.S. export controls limited what Nvidia could sell into China. Reuters said Chinese vendors’ 41% share reflected how domestic players were filling the gap left by those curbs. (anthropic.com) Huawei Technologies led Chinese vendors with about 812,000 AI chips shipped in 2025, according to the Reuters report on the IDC data. Alibaba’s T-Head ranked second at about 265,000 cards, while Baidu’s Kunlunxin and Cambricon each shipped about 116,000. (anthropic.com) ### What is Anthropic saying about 2028? Anthropic said it expects “transformative AI systems” to have arrived by 2028 and used that date to sketch two policy-driven scenarios. In one, democracies preserve their compute edge and set the rules around AI deployment; in the other, U.S. inaction allows China to close the gap using access to American compute and other workarounds. (money.usnews.com) The paper remains available on Anthropic’s research site as of May 16, and the company presents it as a guide for policymakers weighing export-control decisions in the coming years. Reuters’ April 1 report on IDC’s China market data provides the market-share figures Anthropic highlighted in making that case. (money.usnews.com) (anthropic.com)