Wheat farmers brace for worst yields

The U.S. wheat crop is deteriorating fast enough that farmers, grain analysts and federal forecasters are now talking about output at levels not seen in decades. The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month projected a 2026 wheat crop of about 1.561 billion bushels, which would be the country’s smallest since 1972 if realized. Kansas, the top hard red winter wheat state, has become the clearest example of the problem. NewsNation reported on May 21 that more than half the Kansas crop was rated poor or very poor, with farmers facing lower production at the same time diesel, fertilizer and operating costs are rising. ### How bad is the crop outlook right now? The USDA’s May outlook put U.S. wheat production down more than 20% from last year, according to NewsNation’s summary of the federal estimate. (newsnationnow.com) That is why the phrase “worst in more than half a century” has entered coverage: the comparison is to 1972, the last time the U.S. crop was this small. Kansas field data points in the same direction, though with uncertainty. (newsnationnow.com) A Kansas State University-linked weekly outlook dated May 4 estimated a Kansas yield of 38.9 bushels per acre and production of 238 million bushels, while noting that wheat can still improve with timely rain. The Wheat Quality Council’s annual Kansas tour, which sampled 394 fields, later projected Kansas production at 218 million bushels. (newsnationnow.com) Kansas Wheat said that estimate was based on conditions observed from May 12 to May 14 and described drought as the tour’s central theme. ### Why are farmers saying costs matter as much as drought? Fuel and fertilizer costs have become part of the story because they hit farmers before grain is harvested and shipped. (agmanager.info) PBS reported in April that about a third of the world’s fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions there were causing shortages and price spikes during spring planting. (kswheat.com) Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told PBS that the Iran conflict had “elevated the issue of fertilizer” for U.S. farmers and the food supply. Farmers interviewed by PBS said nitrogen prices had jumped sharply, with one Michigan farmer saying a ton had risen from about $350 in January to around $600. That matters because poor yields and high input costs squeeze growers from both sides. (pbs.org) NewsNation said Kansas farmers were producing less crop while paying more for diesel, fertilizer and basic operating costs. ### Does a bad wheat harvest automatically mean pricier bread and pasta? Bread prices do not move one-for-one with wheat prices. NewsNation noted that bakers and food companies can draw on inventories, rely on contracts or import more wheat before higher grain costs fully reach store shelves. (pbs.org) But wheat still sits inside a long list of staple foods. Bread, cereal, pasta, crackers, flour and baked goods are the categories most exposed if wheat stays expensive and Plains weather does not improve. (newsnationnow.com) USDA’s own broader food forecast has not yet moved to panic levels. The Economic Research Service said in its April 24 Food Price Outlook that food-at-home prices for 2026 were forecast to rise 2.4%, with a prediction interval of 0.0% to 4.8%. (newsnationnow.com) It also said farm-level wheat prices were expected to increase 8.4% in 2026 after falling in the prior three years. ### What should readers watch next? (newsnationnow.com) Rain in the Plains is still the immediate variable. NewsNation said the next thing to watch is whether hot, dry conditions persist through the growing season, because that would deepen the risk that a bad farm year becomes a broader food-inflation issue. The next hard markers will come from USDA crop condition reports, harvest results in Kansas and other Plains states, and updated federal supply forecasts. (ers.usda.gov) Kansas Wheat said the tour captured fields still two to eight weeks from harvest, meaning final yields can still change before combines roll in earnest. (kswheat.com) (newsnationnow.com)