New Book Explores SE Asia's Rice Protectionism
A new book, "Rice Politics in Southeast Asia," analyzes the history of protectionist policies among rice-importing nations in the region since the Green Revolution. The research provides critical context for exporters navigating the complex political landscape and sudden policy shifts from major players like India and Vietnam.
India's flip-flopping export policies have sent shockwaves through the global rice market. After an export ban on non-basmati rice in July 2023 caused the price of Thai white 5% broken rice to surge past $650 per ton, a 15-year high, India fully lifted restrictions by early 2025. This reversal led to a market glut and a 35% price drop, with benchmark Thai rice falling to around $405 per metric tonne. Vietnam, the world's third-largest exporter, is strategically pivoting away from volume and towards value. The government plans to reduce annual exports from 8 million tonnes in 2025 to just 4 million by 2030, focusing on higher-quality, low-emission rice to command better prices. This shift is supported by leveraging free trade agreements like the EVFTA, which allows 80,000 tonnes per year into the EU with a 0% tariff. For Thai exporters, currency fluctuations remain a key variable. In the past six months, the Thai baht has traded in a range between approximately 0.0261 and 0.0275 against the euro. Against the competing Vietnamese dong, the baht saw highs around 847 and lows near 801 in the last half of 2025, impacting regional price competitiveness. The European market for premium and specialty rice, valued at over $7.8 billion, continues to expand, with a projected CAGR of 2.8%. Consumers are increasingly demanding aromatic varieties like Jasmine, with a preference for certified organic and sustainably sourced products, creating opportunities for premium Thai brands. However, access to the EU market is tightening. A new automatic safeguard mechanism will take effect on January 1, 2027, triggering tariffs if imports surge above historical averages. European millers are also lobbying for higher duties on milled and packaged rice to encourage the import of raw paddy, aiming to shift value-addition to Europe. Winning in Europe requires navigating a complex web of standards. Beyond mandatory EU Organic certification, buyers increasingly expect food safety schemes like FSSC 22000 and sustainability verification from the Sustainable Rice Platform (SRP). These certifications are becoming crucial for securing relationships with high-end supermarkets and importers. Within Asia, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is reshaping trade flows. The agreement has been a boon for countries like Cambodia, which saw its milled rice exports to China surge by 96%. For Thai exporters, RCEP offers opportunities in high-income markets like Japan and South Korea but also intensifies competition from Vietnam, which is actively using the pact to its advantage.
