Iran begins civilian defence training

Iran launched nationwide civilian defense training exercises on Monday, May 17, 2026, mobilizing over 10 million volunteers across 31 provinces to prepare for potential conflict amid escalating tensions with the US and Israel. The drills, overseen by Iran's Basij paramilitary force, include training in air raid shelters, gas mask usage, and evacuation procedures, with participants practicing responses to simulated airstrikes. Iranian state media reported that the exercises will run for 72 hours, ending Thursday, and involve schools, factories, and residential areas in Tehran and other major cities. This marks the first large-scale civilian mobilization since 2020 exercises tied to US-Iran frictions after the Soleimani assassination. Iran's Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh stated the training aims to "enhance national resilience against hybrid threats," pointing to recent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon as a trigger. Parallel to the drills, Tehran announced contingency plans for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's chokepoint for 20% of global oil flows. Iranian officials outlined alternate navigation routes via the Sea of Oman and Gulf of Aden to bypass potential blockades, with state shipping firm IRISL preparing to reroute 15% of its tanker fleet within 48 hours if needed. The Strait, 21 miles wide at its narrowest, handled 21 million barrels per day of oil in 2025, per the US Energy Information Administration. Disruptions here spiked Brent crude to $92 per barrel on Monday, up 4.2% intraday, as traders priced in escalation risks. Iran's shipping contingencies build on 2025 naval exercises where the IRGC Navy demonstrated mine-laying capabilities in the Strait. A senior IRGC commander told Fars News Agency that "economic endurance plans ensure no surrender to sanctions or blockades," framing the moves as preparation for prolonged pressure from US sanctions renewed under President Trump in January 2026. 1/8 🧵 Iran civilian defense drills + Hormuz shipping contingencies explained amid US-Israel tensions. What's happening, why now, and oil market ripple effects. Buckle up. 2/8 The drills kicked off May 17: 10M+ Basij volunteers training in shelters, masks, evacuations across 31 provinces. Tehran factories & schools shut for 72-hour sim airstrike response. First since 2020. Defense Min. Nasirzadeh: "Resilience vs hybrid threats." Trigger? Israeli hits on Hezbollah last week, per state media. 3/8 Simultaneously: Strait of Hormuz backups. Tehran preps alt routes (Sea of Oman/Gulf of Aden). IRISL to shift 15% tankers in 48 hrs if blockade hits. Strait = 20% global oil (21M bpd). Brent jumped 4% to $92/bbl Monday on fears. 4/8 Context: IRGC drilled mines in Strait 2025. IRGC cmdr to Fars: "Economic endurance beats sanctions/blockades." Ties to Trump's Jan 2026 sanction snapback. 5/8 History lesson: 2019 tanker attacks + US "maximum pressure" saw Hormuz threats. Iran seized UK tanker then. 1980s Tanker War (Iran-Iraq) closed Strait 59 days, oil to $40/bbl (adj. $140 today). 6/8 Big pic: Drills + routes signal prep for long-haul, not just tit-for-tat. Basij = 1M active, millions reservists—civilian backbone for attrition war. Shipping plans harden econ front vs US/Israel axis. 7/8 Markets: OPEC+ spare capacity 5.3M bpd could offset short disruption. But prolonged? $120+ oil easy. Watch IRISL reroutes, Basij Phase 2 drills (TBD post-May 20). 8/8 Next: Drills end Thu. US response via CENTCOM? Israel eyeing Iran proxies. Track Brent, Hormuz AIS data. Sources in thread. End/