Regional spillover and talks

Lebanon’s ceasefire track and the Gulf’s Iran track are now moving at the same time, as officials try to keep the wider war from spreading further. (pbs.org) (trtworld.com) A Hezbollah official said understandings tied to an earlier Lebanon ceasefire were changed after Israeli objections, even as Israel and Lebanon moved toward direct talks this week under United States auspices. President Donald Trump said on April 16 that Israeli and Lebanese leaders would hold talks, and a member of Israel’s security Cabinet confirmed plans for a meeting. (nbcnews.com) (cnbc.com) On the Gulf side, United Arab Emirates Vice President Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan spoke by phone on April 15 with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf about “regional developments” and ways to reduce tensions, according to the Emirati state news agency WAM. Reuters described it as the first high-level contact since the war began. (dawn.com) (trtworld.com) Those contacts are unfolding while Washington and Tehran try to restart broader negotiations after talks in Islamabad ended without a deal on April 12. NBC reported on April 16 that Tehran’s top negotiator said a ceasefire in Lebanon was “as important as a ceasefire in Iran” as he met Pakistan’s army chief. (usatoday.com) (nbcnews.com) The Lebanon file has become harder to separate from the Iran file since March 2, when Hezbollah fired missiles after the United States and Israel launched war on Iran. PBS, citing the Associated Press, reported that Israel responded with a bombing campaign and ground invasion, and that later truce talks became tangled over whether Lebanon was covered at all. (pbs.org) (cfr.org) Israel says it wants any arrangement to run through the Lebanese state, not Hezbollah, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said this week it would not discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah. Lebanon’s government has called for a ceasefire before talks, while Hezbollah’s leadership has rejected the negotiations. (cfr.org) (pbs.org) The military pressure has not eased. NBC reported on April 16 that more than 2,100 people had been killed in Lebanon since the war expanded, and Lebanon’s health ministry said separate Israeli strikes killed nine people, including two children, that morning. (nbcnews.com) Intelligence concerns are also hanging over the diplomacy. NBC reported this week that China has come under growing pressure to use its influence on Tehran, and Reuters said on April 11 that United States intelligence indicated China was preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran, a report that would point to deeper outside involvement if confirmed. (nbcnews.com) (usnews.com) For now, the regional moves are small and uneven: a disputed Lebanon ceasefire formula, a rare Abu Dhabi-Tehran call, and another attempt to get United States-Iran talks back on track. None of them has stopped the fighting, but all three show that the war’s next phase is being argued over in several capitals at once. (cnbc.com) (trtworld.com) (nbcnews.com)