Pakistan opens talks with Taliban

Pakistan is trying to do two things at once. It wants to cool a dangerous border fight with Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers, and it wants to show that it can still matter as a regional go-between. That is the real story here. The talks are not a feel-good reset between old partners. They are an attempt to stop a conflict that has started looking a lot more like open war. (usnews.com) ### Why are Pakistan and the Taliban talking now? Because the fighting got too costly. Pakistan confirmed in early April that senior officials were meeting Taliban representatives in Urumqi, China, to try to end the worst violence between the two sides since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. (afghanistan-analysts.org) Beijing pushed the meeting, and both sides kept details tight — which usually means the basics were still fragile. (dw.com) ### What broke between them? The short version is the TTP. Pakistan says Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters are operating from Afghan soil and attacking inside Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban deny sheltering them, but that denial has not reassured Islamabad for years. What changed this spring is the scale. Border clashes turned into airstrikes, retaliation, and then direct attacks on places Pakistan had not hit before. (usnews.com) ### Why did this start looking like open war? Because the targets expanded fast. In late February, Taliban forces struck Pakistani military bases near the disputed border. Pakistan then bombed several Afghan border provinces and Kabul — a major escalation and the first time Islamabad had attacked Afghan urban areas in this way. Pakistan’s own defense minister described the situation as “open war.” That is not routine border management. (usnews.com) ### What made March so explosive? The March 16 strike on Kabul. One detailed conflict review says Pakistan bombed the city and killed more than 140 civilians. UN figures cited elsewhere counted at least 75 civilians killed and 193 injured from the fighting by mid-March, with totals still preliminary. Either way, the pattern is clear — the violence jumped from militant pursuit to mass-casualty confrontation. (cfr.org) ### So are these peace talks working? A little, but not cleanly. There were mediation attempts by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and now China. There was also a temporary Eid ceasefire in March. But ceasefires kept fraying, and late-April reporting pointed to renewed cross-border attacks after the Urumqi talks. Basically, the diplomacy is real, but so is the battlefield. (cfr.org) ### Why is China in the room? Because China has leverage with both sides and its own security worries. Chinese officials helped convene the Urumqi talks, and reporting around those meetings said Beijing wanted progress kept low-profile until something solid emerged. China is worried about militant spillover, attacks on its nationals, and instability around projects tied to its regional footprint. (afghanistan-analysts.org) ### Where does Iran fit into this? It matters because Pakistan has recently shown it can mediate beyond its western border. In April, Islamabad helped secure a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire and then tried to turn that pause into broader talks. That gave Pakistan a useful argument: even while managing its own security crisis, it can still be a diplomatic broker worth engaging. (afghanistan-analysts.org) ### What is the bottom line? Pakistan is not making peace with the Taliban in any deep sense. It is trying to contain the TTP threat, stop a border war from spiraling, and convert emergency diplomacy into regional relevance. If the talks hold, Islamabad gets breathing room. If they fail, the next round may be even harder to contain. (cfr.org) (dw.com) (kabulnow.com)