Inflation and wages data
- UK input PPI rose 5.4% year‑over‑year, while output PPI was reported at 2.6%, signaling upstream price pressure. (x.com) - U.S. CPI is cited at 3.3% year‑over‑year with energy up roughly 12.5% and unemployment at about 4.3%. (x.com) - Reports note policy rates are restrictive at about 5.25% with recent GDP prints showing weakness in 2023. (x.com)
UK producer input prices jumped 5.4% year‑on‑year in March, while US headline consumer inflation rose to 3.3% in March. (ons.gov.uk) The Office for National Statistics said producer output (factory‑gate) prices were up 2.6% year‑on‑year in the year to March, with monthly input prices rising 4.4% in March. (backup.ons.gov.uk) The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% month‑on‑month and 3.3% year‑on‑year in March; the energy index jumped 10.9% in March and was about 12.5% higher over the year. (bls.gov) ONS highlighted crude oil inputs as the largest single contributor to the UK input PPI shock, saying crude oil prices rose 58.8% between February and March. (backup.ons.gov.uk) BLS tables show core inflation (all items less food and energy) remained cooler, rising about 2.6% year‑on‑year in March, indicating the headline move was concentrated in volatile energy components. (advisorperspectives.com) On the jobs front, US payrolls increased by 178,000 in March and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, figures the Fed cited as they kept policy on hold. (bls.gov) Central banks’ policy paths have shifted since 2023: policy rates peaked around 5.25–5.50% in 2023, the Bank of England has cut to a Bank Rate of 3.75% as of March 19, 2026, and the Fed’s target range is 3.50%–3.75% after its March 18 decision. (pgpf.org) Markets will watch two near‑term policy dates for signs of change: the Federal Open Market Committee meets April 28–29, 2026, and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets April 30, 2026. (federalreserve.gov)
