Middle East shocks push oil up
Oil prices jumped after Houthi attacks on Israel over the weekend, amplifying energy-market volatility and inflation risks — a shock that’s already complicating transition finance timelines. GCC economies are expected to see a slight contraction in 2026 as the conflict drags on, raising the prospect of delayed cross-border green infrastructure projects and more demand for scenario-based ESG advisory. (globalbankingandfinance.com; muscatdaily.com)
Brent crude rose $3.16 to $115.73 a barrel (a 2.81% intraday gain) and U.S. WTI traded at $102.77, up $3.13 (3.14%), in trading linked to weekend developments on March 30, 2026. (money.usnews.com) Yemen’s Houthi movement said it launched ballistic-missile strikes at southern Israel on March 28, describing the targets as “sensitive military sites,” with spokesman Yahya Saree announcing the operation on Al-Masirah TV. (aljazeera.com) The Israeli military reported intercepting a missile from Yemen during the incident, a detail confirmed in reporting by major outlets covering the March 28 strikes. (cnbc.com) The ICAEW Economic Insight Q1 2026 report forecasts GCC GDP will contract by 0.2% in 2026 and then rebound 8.5% in 2027, citing sustained disruption to energy trade and investor sentiment. (muscatdaily.com) Oxford Economics separately said it has downgraded its GCC growth profile, cutting its 2026 real‑GDP forecast by 1.8 percentage points to 2.6% because of lower exports, tourism and domestic demand. (oxfordeconomics.com) Deal-making is already being affected: state‑backed finance conferences in Riyadh and Dubai were delayed this week because of security and travel concerns tied to the wider Iran‑related conflict, according to Bloomberg’s March 27 reporting. (bloomberg.com) Market and advisory signals show pressure on transition finance economics — IFR’s sector analysis says the conflict is driving a financing cost shock that raises risk premia even as some private‑market ESG transactions continue, and banks report heightened demand for transition advisory. (ifre.com) Energy‑infrastructure damage is compounding the fiscal shock: QatarEnergy estimated mid‑March missile strikes on Ras Laffan cut LNG export capacity by about 17%, will cost roughly $20 billion a year in lost revenue and may take up to five years to repair. (qatarenergy.qa) The International Energy Agency and related trackers note the Strait of Hormuz normally handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of seaborne oil and that throughput has collapsed amid the crisis, amplifying the physical supply squeeze behind current price moves. (businesstoday.in)
