JPMorgan lifts S&P target

JPMorgan raised its 2026 year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,600 on April 21, reversing a cut it made just weeks earlier. (usnews.com) The new target is up from 7,200 and implies about 6.9% upside from the index’s April 20 close of 7,109.14. JPMorgan had lowered the target from 7,500 to 7,200 in March. (usnews.com) The bank also lifted its S&P 500 earnings forecasts to $330 per share for 2026 from $315, and to $385 for 2027 from $355. Reuters reported the call came from the team at JPMorgan led by strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas. (usnews.com) (bloomberg.com) The case for a higher target rests on profit growth more than on a richer valuation. FactSet said on April 17 that the S&P 500 was trading at 20.9 times forward 12-month earnings, above its five-year average of 19.9 and 10-year average of 18.9. (factset.com) That leaves less room for stocks to rise just because investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings. JPMorgan’s own weekly market recap said a rare 4% upward revision in 2026 earnings estimates had been driven by technology and energy as of April 16. (am.jpmorgan.com) (factset.com) The earnings backdrop has been firming across the index, though leadership is still concentrated. FactSet said on April 17 that first-quarter blended earnings growth for the S&P 500 was 13.2%, with the “Magnificent 7” expected to grow earnings 22.8% versus 10.1% for the other 493 companies. (factset.com) JPMorgan’s note did not describe a broad, equal rally across every sector. Reuters said the bank saw positive estimate revisions clustered in a small group of technology companies and the energy sector, and warned of a possible short-term consolidation after the recent run-up. (usnews.com) The call also fits with JPMorgan’s wider 2026 market view, which has paired optimism on equities with caution on the macro backdrop. In its December 2025 outlook, the bank said it expected AI investment to keep driving market dynamics even as sticky inflation and a 35% recession probability remained part of the picture. (jpmorgan.com) By April 17, JPMorgan Asset Management’s market recap showed the S&P 500 at 7,126 and up 4.47% for the year, while growth stocks had outperformed value over the prior week. The higher 7,600 target amounts to a bet that earnings can keep carrying the index even if the advance remains narrow. (am.jpmorgan.com)