DRAM/HBM shortfall to 2028
- Counterpoint Research said in April 2026 that global DRAM supply is on track to meet only about 60% of demand by late 2027, extending a memory shortage that analysts say could last into 2028. - The firm said annual DRAM capacity is growing about 7.5%, below the roughly 12% pace needed in 2026-27, while DRAM prices were already up 110% year over year in Q1 2026. - Samsung, SK hynix and Micron are steering more output to high-bandwidth memory for AI servers, tightening supply for PCs and phones and keeping prices elevated. (edgen.tech)
High-bandwidth memory is the stacked DRAM that feeds artificial-intelligence chips fast enough to keep them busy, and analysts now say supply will stay tight into 2028. (edgen.tech) Counterpoint Research said global DRAM supply is likely to meet only about 60% of market demand by the end of 2027, even after expansion plans from Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron. (edgen.tech) The same research said annual production capacity is rising about 7.5%, short of the roughly 12% growth needed between 2026 and 2027 to close the gap. (edgen.tech) That squeeze starts with AI servers. Data-center operators are pre-ordering high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, in large volumes, tying up output from the top suppliers before other buyers can get it. (edgen.tech) The pressure is already showing up in prices. DRAM prices in the first quarter of 2026 were up 110% from a year earlier, according to the same report cited by Edgen. (edgen.tech) HBM is different from the memory in a laptop or phone because multiple DRAM dies are stacked vertically and wired together so a graphics processor can pull data much faster. JEDEC’s HBM4 standard, released in mid-April 2025, doubled independent channels per stack from 16 in HBM3 to 32. (trendforce.com) JEDEC’s standard also allows taller and denser stacks, including 16-high configurations and up to 64 gigabytes per cube with 32-gigabit dies. That gives chipmakers a path to more memory per accelerator, but not an instant jump in output. (trendforce.com) SK hynix said in March 2025 that it had shipped 12-layer HBM4 samples to major customers and was preparing for mass production in the second half of 2025. Samsung was targeting HBM4 mass production in 2025, while Micron was also advancing its next-generation roadmap. (trendforce.com) Even with those roadmaps, the immediate effect is a reshuffling of supply. Samsung and SK hynix are moving capacity away from older DRAM products toward higher-margin HBM for data centers, leaving less room for PC and smartphone memory. (edgen.tech) The result is a memory market where AI demand gets first call on new capacity, and relief for the rest of the electronics industry is still being pushed out. Counterpoint’s forecast puts that reset no earlier than 2028. (edgen.tech)
