AAA forecasts 45 million travelers

AAA said 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday period, setting what the motor club called a new record for the weekend. The forecast, released May 11, covers trips between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25. AAA said the total is slightly above 2025, when 44.8 million people traveled for the holiday. The projection points to another heavy start to the summer travel season even as gasoline prices are higher than a year ago. ### How many people are AAA and others actually counting? AAA said its Memorial Day forecast measures domestic travelers going 50 miles or more from home during the five-day holiday window. The 45 million figure refers to all modes of travel combined, not just drivers. The group said that makes 2026 the latest record year for Memorial Day travel in data it tracks back to 2000. (newsroom.aaa.com) The 2025 comparison is narrow but important. AAA said last year's Memorial Day forecast was 45.1 million travelers for the May 22-26, 2025 period, while its 2026 release described this year's 45 million as "slightly higher" than the 44.8 million who actually traveled in 2025. That means the comparison in the 2026 release is against last year's realized travel estimate, not last year's forecast. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Why are cars still dominating the holiday weekend? AAA said 39.1 million people are expected to travel by car this Memorial Day, accounting for 87% of all travelers. That would also be a record for the holiday period, according to the group's forecast. (newsroom.aaa.com) Gasoline prices are part of the picture. AAA said prices are higher than last Memorial Day weekend, but it still expects driving to remain the top choice because of the flexibility and convenience of road travel. Local AAA officials quoted in regional coverage said many travelers are still opting for shorter getaways and trips to see friends and family. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### What does the forecast say about flying and other trips? AAA said 3.66 million travelers are expected to fly over the holiday period. That would leave the remaining share traveling by other modes such as buses, trains and cruises. Average airfares are lower than a year ago for travelers who booked early, according to AAA's release and follow-on coverage. (newsroom.aaa.com) At the same time, broad travel demand remains high enough that airports, highways and rental-car counters are expected to be crowded through the weekend. ABC News, citing AAA, also reported record-breaking holiday demand despite higher costs for gas and airfare. ### Where are the pressure points likely to show up? AAA's forecast points first to the roads because nearly nine in 10 travelers are expected to drive. USA Today network reports citing AAA data said the worst driving times are likely to fall around midday and evening on Thursday and Friday ahead of the holiday. (newsroom.aaa.com) Weather is another variable. AccuWeather said cooler temperatures could affect outdoor plans even as travel volume reaches a record 45 million. That does not change AAA's forecast, but it could shape when and how people travel over the weekend. (witness.usatoday.com) ### What should readers watch next? Monday, May 25, is the last day in AAA's Memorial Day travel window, and the organization typically updates related consumer information through its travel and fuel-price releases. AAA's newsroom also published a May 21 item saying Memorial Day weekend gas prices reached a four-year high, a figure travelers will keep watching through the holiday return rush. (accuweather.com) (newsroom.aaa.com)