China export growth slows in March

China’s export growth slowed sharply in March, even as imports jumped at their fastest pace in more than four years. (english.customs.gov.cn) China’s General Administration of Customs said March exports rose 2.5% from a year earlier to $321.0 billion, down from a 21.8% increase in January and February combined. Imports climbed 27.8% to $269.9 billion, leaving a monthly trade surplus of about $51.1 billion. (english.customs.gov.cn) The March export figure missed economist forecasts. Reuters reported analysts had expected growth of about 8.3%, while CNBC cited a Reuters poll with an 8.6% median estimate. (asahi.com, cnbc.com) The slowdown landed after two very different forces hit China’s trade machine at once. Demand for artificial intelligence-related goods had lifted shipments earlier in 2026, but the Iran war pushed up energy and transport costs and clouded the outlook for overseas buyers. (asahi.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com) Imports told a different story. The customs breakdown showed processing trade imports rose 43.4% and logistics goods by customs special control areas rose 21.1%, figures that point to heavier buying of parts, raw materials and goods moving through bonded zones. (english.customs.gov.cn) China entered 2026 with unusually strong export momentum. Reuters, via Asahi and other outlets, said the country was coming off a 2025 trade surplus of about $1.2 trillion, with technology shipments helping fuel hopes for another export-led year. (asahi.com, businesstimes.com.sg) The March data also showed how exposed that strategy remains to shocks outside China’s control. Reuters reported that higher fuel and shipping costs cut into global purchasing power, making it harder for manufacturers to keep the early-year pace. (economictimes.indiatimes.com, asahi.com) Some reports pointed to another pressure point: trade frictions with the United States. RTÉ said exports to the United States fell in March as tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump hit shipments, adding another drag alongside the energy shock. (rte.ie) For now, March leaves China with a split signal: weaker export growth, stronger import demand, and a smaller surplus than the export boom had suggested a few months ago. The next test comes with first-quarter growth data and whether April trade numbers show March was a one-month shock or the start of a broader slowdown. (english.customs.gov.cn, cnbc.com)