India, Pakistan mark ceasefire anniversary

A year after India and Pakistan slammed into their most dangerous clash in decades, the basic fact is simple — the ceasefire is still holding. That matters because the fighting in May 2025 involved missiles, drones, airstrikes, and direct attacks on military sites before a truce took effect on May 10, 2025. But the calmer border does not mean a repaired relationship. It means the two nuclear-armed neighbors have stepped back from open fighting while leaving most of the underlying disputes exactly where they were. ### What is being marked here? This is the first anniversary of the ceasefire that ended four days of intense fighting between India and Pakistan in May 2025. That round of escalation followed the April 2025 Pahalgam attack in Kashmir, which India blamed on Pakistan-backed militants and Pakistan denied any role in. The truce stopped firing on land, in the air, and at sea after direct military contact and outside mediation. (military.com) ### Why does the anniversary feel tense? Because both sides are marking peace while talking like war is still imaginable. Pakistan’s military said this week that any hostile move by India would be met with greater force, precision, and resolve. That is not the language of reconciliation. It is deterrence language — basically, a reminder that the ceasefire exists because both sides know how bad the alternative can get. (military.com) ### If the guns are quiet, what is still broken? The biggest practical rupture is water. India has kept the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance since April 2025 and has repeated that it will not restore normal treaty operation unless Pakistan, in India’s words, credibly and irrevocably ends support for cross-border terrorism. That treaty had survived wars and long diplomatic freezes since 1960, so its suspension is a much bigger signal than a routine diplomatic spat. (apnews.com) ### Why is the water issue so serious? Because the treaty is not symbolic. The Indus system supports agriculture, power generation, and daily life for more than 300 million people across the basin, and Pakistan depends on it heavily for irrigation. Even when water keeps flowing, the breakdown of meetings, data-sharing, and dispute mechanisms creates uncertainty — and uncertainty in a river system can become a security issue fast. (indianexpress.com) ### What has Pakistan been doing about that? Pakistan has spent the past year trying to internationalize the water dispute. It has raised the issue at the UN and sought outside attention from bodies like the World Bank and the International Court of Justice. The point is not that those moves guarantee a quick result. The point is to turn India’s treaty suspension into a broader diplomatic cost. (chathamhouse.org) ### And what has India been doing? India has paired the ceasefire with a harder political line. It has kept linking any broader normalization to terrorism and, at the same time, pushed ahead with projects on its side of the river system that had long been slowed by treaty disputes. So India’s message is not “back to normal.” It is “calm if you want, but on new terms.” (indianexpress.com) ### Does this mean the ceasefire is weak? Not weak exactly — but narrow. The ceasefire has done the important job of stopping immediate military escalation. What it has not done is rebuild trust, reopen a serious political process on Kashmir, or restore the one big cooperative framework that used to survive crises. That makes the truce feel less like peace and more like a lid kept firmly on a boiling pot. (indianexpress.com) ### Bottom line A year on, India and Pakistan have proved they can stop shooting. They have not proved they can stabilize the relationship underneath. As long as water cooperation stays frozen and each anniversary doubles as a warning, the ceasefire will look durable tactically — but fragile politically. (indianexpress.com) (chathamhouse.org)