Fatty liver could hit nearly 2 billion
A coalition of studies now estimates metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease affected about 16.1% of people globally in 2023 and could reach roughly 1.8 billion people by 2050. That projection is tied to rising obesity and high blood sugar trends in population models (ajmc.com) (theguardian.com).
Metabolic liver disease that starts with fat building up in the liver could affect about 1.8 billion people worldwide by 2050, according to a new Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology analysis. (thelancet.com) The researchers estimated that metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease affected 1.3 billion people in 2023, or 16.1% of the global population, up 143% from 1990. (thelancet.com) Their model projected 1.8 billion cases by 2050 and pointed to rising obesity and high fasting plasma glucose, a blood-sugar measure used in population studies, as major drivers alongside population growth. (ajmc.com) The condition was long known as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. In June 2023, liver societies including the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases adopted the newer name metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, or metabolic fatty liver linked to risks such as obesity, diabetes, and high blood pressure. (aasld.org) Doctors use “steatotic” to mean fat in the liver. The disease can range from simple fat buildup to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, a more aggressive form with inflammation that can lead to scarring, cirrhosis, liver cancer, and liver failure. (jamanetwork.com) The illness is often tied to the same metabolic problems behind type 2 diabetes and heart disease. A 2025 JAMA review said it affects about 30% to 40% of adults globally, including roughly 60% to 70% of people with type 2 diabetes and 70% to 80% of people with obesity. (jamanetwork.com) European liver, diabetes, and obesity guidelines published in 2024 said people with steatotic liver disease should be checked for advanced fibrosis, or serious scarring, because that helps determine the risk of liver-related and cardiovascular complications. (journal-of-hepatology.eu) The new global forecast suggests the burden will keep shifting into health systems already managing diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease at the same time. By 2050, the count approaches one in five people worldwide. (theguardian.com)
