Rabobank says Strait of Hormuz is 'functionally closed' after ship attacks

Rabobank said on Tuesday the Strait of Hormuz remained “functionally closed,” extending a warning it has repeated in recent research as attacks on commercial shipping and seizure risks continue to disrupt traffic through the Gulf chokepoint. Wood Mackenzie said on May 20 that a prolonged closure posed the biggest threat to global energy markets in decades, with more than 11 million barrels per day of Gulf crude and condensate production curtailed. French officials and allied governments have also described the waterway as effectively shut or under de facto closure in recent statements, while calling for freedom of navigation and de-escalation. ### What exactly did Rabobank say? Rabobank’s research pages this week said “the strait remains functionally closed and global crude and refined product stocks are rapidly drawing down,” according to a May 18 entry on its Knowledge site. A separate Rabobank research note published in April said its base case assumed an “extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” with any meaningful normalization of energy flows pushed toward late September. (rabobank.com) The Rabobank language matters because it stops short of saying every ship movement has ceased. The bank’s phrasing describes a market in which risks to vessels, insurance, routing and seizure have reduced normal commercial flows enough that traders and analysts treat the strait as closed in practice. That is an inference from Rabobank’s wording and related official statements, not a separate formal designation. (rabobank.com) ### How large is the energy disruption Wood Mackenzie is describing? Wood Mackenzie said on May 20 that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could become the largest global energy supply shock in decades. The consultancy said more than 11 million barrels per day of Gulf crude and condensate production was currently curtailed and more than 80 million tonnes per annum of LNG supply was affected. (rabobank.com) Wood Mackenzie had already said in March that about 20% of global LNG supply and 15% of global oil demand normally transit the waterway. In a worst-case scenario published on May 20, it said oil prices could reach $200 a barrel. Separate Wood Mackenzie releases in March said the closure had removed 1.5 million tonnes per week from global LNG supply, equivalent to 19% of global exports, and would cut demand in Northeast Asia and South Asia if disruptions persisted through the third quarter. (woodmac.com) ### Have governments used similar language? France’s foreign minister, Jean‑Noël Barrot, said on March 4 that “effectively, the Strait of Hormuz is closed to the movement of ships due to the risks,” according to an official transcript published by France’s foreign ministry. (woodmac.com) On March 19, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom said Iranian forces had imposed a “de facto closure” of the strait. (woodmac.com) Those statements do not match Rabobank’s wording exactly, but they support the same basic description: shipping risk rather than a formal legal blockade has become the immediate constraint on transit. France and the United Kingdom later said 51 countries had met at an international summit on the strait to back freedom of navigation and international law. (uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr) ### What is EMASOH and why is it being mentioned? France has been a leading participant in European maritime security efforts tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and official French statements have linked those efforts to securing ship movements through the area. Barrot said on March 4 that securing movement meant intercepting elements sent by those seeking to attack ships or block navigation. (uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr) Social media posts this week referred to EMASOH patrols in the strait. I could verify from official French sources that France and partner governments are publicly backing maritime security and freedom of navigation in Hormuz, but I did not find a fresh official operational update naming a new EMASOH patrol on May 20. ### What should readers watch next? (uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr) Wood Mackenzie’s next markers are duration and price. Its May 20 release says a prolonged closure, not a brief disruption, is the scenario that would deepen the supply shock and potentially push oil toward $200 a barrel. Rabobank’s published base case points to late September as the point for meaningful normalization of flows. (uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr) French and allied statements point to two parallel tracks in the near term: continued diplomatic efforts and continued protection of navigation through the strait. Any official reopening signal is most likely to appear first in new government statements, maritime security updates or fresh market notes from banks and consultancies already tracking the disruption. (uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr) (woodmac.com)