IMF keeps 3.9% growth forecast
- The International Monetary Fund cut, not kept, its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% in its April 14 World Economic Outlook. - The IMF said the downgrade was 0.2 percentage point from January, with global inflation now seen at 4.4% in 2026. - The Fund tied the cut to the Middle East war and oil shock, with bigger damage in poorer importers. (imf.org)
The International Monetary Fund did not keep a 3.9% global growth forecast. On April 14, it cut its 2026 world growth projection to 3.1%. (imf.org) The new forecast came in the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, titled *Global Economy in the Shadow of War*. The report says the outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of February 2026 changed the outlook. (imf.org) The IMF said global growth is now projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. That is slower than the roughly 3.4% pace recorded in 2024 and 2025, and below the 3.7% average from 2000 to 2019. (imf.org) The key revision was not 3.9% world growth but a 3.9% forecast for emerging market and developing economies in 2026. Reuters reported that figure was down from 4.2% in the IMF’s January update. (reuters.com) (imf.org) The Fund’s reference forecast assumes the conflict is limited in duration and scope, with disruptions fading by mid-2026. Even under that milder case, the IMF said global headline inflation would rise to 4.4% in 2026 before easing to 3.7% in 2027. (imf.org) Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said the institution had expected to raise its growth forecast before the war. He said the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy facilities had instead raised the risk of a broader energy crisis. (imf.org) In the IMF’s adverse scenario, global growth drops to 2.5% in 2026 and inflation rises to 5.4%. In its severe scenario, growth falls to 2% in both 2026 and 2027 while inflation moves above 6%. (imf.org) The IMF said the hit would be uneven. Commodity-importing emerging economies with weak currencies, high import bills and limited fiscal room face the sharpest strain, while advanced-economy forecasts were broadly unchanged from January. (imf.org) (reuters.com) So the story behind “3.9%” is narrower than the headline suggests: it is the IMF’s 2026 forecast for developing economies, not for the world. The global number the IMF published on April 14 was 3.1%, with downside risks still dominant. (reuters.com) (imf.org)
