Ceasefire: Fragile Calm

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is still largely holding a week after it began, but new strikes in south Lebanon and a Hezbollah drone attack have exposed how little room for error remains. (reuters.com 1) (reuters.com 2) The truce took effect on April 16 at 2100 GMT for an initial 10 days under a U.S.-backed deal between Israel and Lebanon. The text says Lebanon’s state security forces must prevent attacks on Israel, while Israel says it keeps the right to act against planned or imminent attacks. (reuters.com) The deal did not require an immediate Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and Reuters reported Israeli forces were holding positions as far as 10 kilometers inside Lebanese territory as part of what Israeli officials called a buffer zone. Lebanon is using talks in Washington on Thursday, April 23, to seek an extension of the ceasefire before it expires. (reuters.com 1) (reuters.com 2) That leaves both sides arguing over what counts as enforcement and what counts as a violation. Lebanon says the next phase must end hostilities and Israeli occupation in the south, while Israel says its remaining military presence is meant to stop Hezbollah from reestablishing attack positions near the border. (reuters.com) (apnews.com) The ceasefire also sits on top of a much larger humanitarian crisis. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said on April 18 that 2,196 people had been killed and 7,185 injured in Lebanon since March 2, and about 100,000 people were still estimated to be in hard-to-reach areas as of April 16. (reliefweb.int) Even where the guns have quieted, the return home is dangerous. United Nations officials said displaced families were moving back into Nabatieh, Tyre and Beirut’s southern suburbs, but roads, bridges and hospitals were damaged, and unexploded ordnance remained in residential areas. (news.un.org) (pbs.org) The violence has not fully stopped. Reuters reported on April 22 that at least four people were killed in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah said it launched an attack drone at Israeli forces in the south the same day. (reuters.com) A separate attack on April 18 showed how quickly the situation can spill beyond the front line. UNIFIL said one French peacekeeper was killed and three others were wounded by small-arms fire in Ghanduriyah while clearing explosive ordnance, and its initial assessment said the fire came from non-state actors allegedly linked to Hezbollah. (unifil.unmissions.org) (un.org) Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said on April 17 that the ceasefire should be turned into “permanent agreements,” and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said this week that any durable deal requires a full Israeli withdrawal. U.S.-hosted talks in Washington are now the main channel for testing whether this 10-day pause becomes a longer one. (reuters.com) (washingtonpost.com)