Commodities jump: sulfur +95% since Iran war

Charlie Bilello said on May 16 that a basket of commodities had risen steeply since the Iran war began, with sulfur, European natural gas, WTI crude and jet fuel among the biggest movers in a chart he posted on X. The post circulated across finance accounts on Saturday and added a fresh data point to a market story that has centered for weeks on disrupted Gulf energy flows and higher shipping risk. Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, wrote that sulfur had risen 95% since the start of the conflict, while European natural gas was up 59%, WTI crude 58% and jet fuel 56%. Traders and analysts have tied the broader move in energy-linked commodities to the war that began after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, and the resulting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. ### Why did sulfur top Bilello’s list? Sulfur was the largest gainer in Bilello’s chart at 95%, a move that stood out because the material usually gets less attention than oil or gas. Sulfur is used in fertilizer, metals processing and sulfuric acid production, linking it to agriculture and industrial supply chains as well as refining. Reuters reported on May 10 that Saudi Aramco’s East-West crude pipeline was running at full capacity as Hormuz risks curtailed shipping, underscoring how the conflict has affected by-products and logistics beyond headline crude flows. (tradersunion.com) Trading Economics said sulfur rose to 7,583.33 yuan per metric ton on May 15, the highest level in its series, though that dataset is a separate benchmark from Bilello’s chart. Foreign Policy reported in April that sulfur supply chains were being scrambled by the war because the commodity is essential to fertilizer, mining and chemicals. (msn.com) ### Why are European gas and U.S. oil in the same chart? European natural gas and U.S. crude both reflect the same geopolitical shock: reduced confidence in Gulf energy flows. The World Economic Forum said Brent crude rose as much as 13% in early trading on March 2 after the Feb. 28 strikes on Iran, while Reuters and other outlets have reported that the Strait of Hormuz normally carries about a fifth of global oil and LNG flows. (tradingeconomics.com) The Dallas Fed said on March 20 that the closure of Hormuz after the outbreak of military conflict with Iran amounted to a major geopolitical oil supply disruption. ICE data showed Dutch TTF natural gas futures for June 2026 at 47.895 euros per megawatt-hour on May 14. Trading Economics said the TTF benchmark reached 50.85 euros per megawatt-hour on May 15. Bilello’s chart put the gain since the war began at 59%, indicating he was measuring from a lower starting point near the outbreak of the conflict rather than from month-ago levels. That is an inference based on current benchmark prices and the date of the conflict. (weforum.org) ### What happened at the start of the conflict? Feb. 28, 2026, is the date multiple sources identify as the start of the current war. The World Economic Forum said U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began that day, and Reuters-based reporting cited by CNBC said Iran’s Revolutionary Guard later declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Time reported in early March that global oil and gas prices had surged as the conflict brought traffic through the waterway to a halt. (ice.com) Reuters reported on April 6 that Iran had effectively shut the Strait, handing windfalls to some producers while costing others billions of dollars in lost exports. Bloomberg reported on March 20 that the waterway handles around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a fifth of LNG supply. (weforum.org) ### Why did Bilello’s post get attention on May 16? May 16 was a day when investors were still looking for simple scorecards on what the war had done to prices across markets. Bilello’s chart condensed several of the most visible commodity moves into one ranking and paired them with a start date that traders already recognized from the conflict timeline. His earlier posts and blog entries have tracked the same theme over recent weeks as commodity prices moved higher after the war began. (usnews.com) The next set of market checkpoints will come from benchmark pricing screens and exchange data, including ICE Dutch TTF gas futures and front-month oil contracts. Reuters, exchange data and company filings from producers such as Saudi Aramco are likely to remain the main public markers for whether the gains Bilello highlighted on May 16 continue to widen or begin to reverse. (ice.com) (tradersunion.com)