GasBuddy warns $4.80 average through Labor Day

GasBuddy said on May 20 that U.S. gasoline prices could average $4.80 a gallon from Memorial Day through Labor Day if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a significant part of the summer. CNBC reported on May 23 that the forecast came as higher fuel costs were already colliding with the start of the peak summer travel season. GasBuddy said the national average would reach $4.48 a gallon on Memorial Day, up from $3.14 a year earlier. The company said the path from there depends on geopolitical developments and whether shipping through the strait resumes. ### Why is GasBuddy tying U.S. pump prices to the Strait of Hormuz? The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil shipping chokepoints, and GasBuddy made it the central condition in its summer price forecast. In the company’s May 20 release, GasBuddy said record-high summer averages were possible if the waterway stayed closed for a significant portion of the season. (gasbuddy.com) CNBC said on May 23 that the outlook for gasoline prices was “very much contingent” on geopolitical developments and on whether tankers can move through the strait. That means the forecast is not a straight-line prediction of normal summer demand, but a scenario tied to a specific supply risk. ### How high is $4.80 compared with recent summers? (gasbuddy.com) GasBuddy said $4.80 would be the average national price between Memorial Day and Labor Day, not just a brief spike on a single day. Quartz, summarizing the forecast, said that level would top the previous summer record average of $4.43 set in 2022. (cnbc.com) The company’s Memorial Day estimate also shows how quickly prices have moved. GasBuddy projected $4.48 for Memorial Day 2026, compared with $3.14 on Memorial Day 2025, a year-over-year increase of $1.34 a gallon. ### Does GasBuddy expect prices to stop at $4.80? (gasbuddy.com) GasBuddy did not present $4.80 as a hard ceiling. In its release, the company said “all-time record highs” were possible if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed for much of the summer. Several follow-up reports on the forecast said prices could move above $5 a gallon under a prolonged disruption scenario. (gasbuddy.com) CBS News, citing GasBuddy and AAA data, reported that the national average had already climbed above year-earlier levels by more than $1.40 and that Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s petroleum analyst, called this the most volatile summer at the pump in years. ### Are Americans still planning to drive anyway? (gasbuddy.com) GasBuddy paired the forecast with a summer travel survey showing that road trips remain common, even as price pressure grows. The company said 56% of Americans still planned to drive more than two hours this summer, though that was down from 69% a year earlier. (cbsnews.com) CNBC reported that higher gasoline and airfare were testing how much consumers still want to travel this summer. AAA, according to multiple reports cited in Memorial Day coverage, still expected about 45 million Americans to travel over the holiday weekend despite the highest gas prices in four years. ### What should readers watch next? (wbcl.org) September 7, 2026, is Labor Day and the end date of GasBuddy’s summer forecast window. Before then, the most important variables are whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes and whether the national average, projected at $4.48 for Memorial Day, moves closer to or above $5 a gallon. (gasbuddy.com) (cnbc.com)