AAA forecasts 45 million Memorial Day travelers

AAA said on May 11 that 45 million Americans would travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday period from Thursday, May 21, through Monday, May 25. The travel group said that would edge above 2025’s 44.8 million travelers and set another Memorial Day weekend record. Most of those trips were expected to be by car, even as gas prices reached their highest Memorial Day level in four years, according to AAA. Weather also threatened to complicate the weekend, with thunderstorms and tornado risks disrupting flights in parts of the country while the West Coast was forecast to stay warm and dry. ### How big is AAA’s Memorial Day forecast? AAA projected 45 million travelers for the five-day holiday period, covering trips of at least 50 miles from home. The group said the total was slightly above last year’s 44.8 million and would establish a new Memorial Day travel record. The forecast came from AAA’s national travel outlook published on May 11. Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said in the release that many Americans were still prioritizing holiday getaways despite higher fuel costs. ### How many people are expected to drive versus fly? AAA said 39.1 million people were expected to drive to their destinations over the holiday. That left road travel as the dominant mode by a wide margin, consistent with Memorial Day’s usual pattern of shorter domestic trips. Air travel was forecast at 3.66 million domestic passengers, according to AAA figures cited by Yahoo. That would be a 0.3% increase from last year. AAA also said average round-trip domestic airfares for the holiday were lower than a year earlier, even as fuel prices for drivers were higher. ### Why are so many people still traveling with gas prices up? AAA said Memorial Day gas prices had reached a four-year high. Even so, the organization said the increase in overall travel showed that many travelers were still willing to absorb higher driving costs for a long holiday weekend. Stacey Barber said in AAA’s release that travelers were continuing to make leisure trips a priority. AAA’s forecast did not suggest a broad pullback in demand; instead, it showed modest year-over-year growth from an already elevated 2025 base. ### Where could weather create the biggest problems? The Mirror US reported that thunderstorms and tornado threats were already delaying flights across parts of the country during the holiday weekend. That raised the risk of airport disruptions as millions of passengers moved through the system. The West Coast forecast was more favorable. The Mirror said conditions there were expected to remain dry, with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average through Memorial Day. ### When are the busiest travel windows? AAA’s forecast period began on Thursday, May 21, and runs through Monday, May 25. That five-day window is the standard frame the group uses for its Memorial Day estimate. American Airlines told ABC News that Friday, May 22, was expected to be its busiest day of the holiday weekend. For drivers, AAA and traffic analysts typically warn that afternoon and early evening departure periods around the start of the weekend are the most congested. ### What should travelers watch next? Monday, May 25, is the final day in AAA’s Memorial Day forecast window, and return traffic and airport operations will remain the next measurable test. Travelers can track updated flight conditions through airlines and airport advisories, while AAA’s travel pages and regional clubs carry the underlying forecast numbers for driving and flying demand.