The Points Guy: airfares up 27%

Sean Cudahy of The Points Guy reported on May 13 that summer airfare has risen sharply for travelers booking flights in the Memorial Day-to-Labor Day window. The report, citing data from fare-tracking partner Points Path, said domestic round-trip economy prices are about 27% higher than they were at the same point last year. Award pricing for domestic trips is also up, with mileage redemptions running nearly 25% above year-earlier levels. The article tied the increase to higher jet fuel costs and said travelers may need to change how they search, book and redeem points this summer. ### How big is the increase The Points Guy is describing? Points Path data cited by The Points Guy showed domestic round-trip economy fares up roughly 27% year over year for summer travel, while domestic award prices were up nearly 25%. The May 13 article said the comparison covers the core summer booking period and reflects what travelers are seeing now, not an earlier forecast. (thepointsguy.com) Earlier in the season, Points Path had reported a smaller increase. In a May 5 post on its own site, the company said average domestic cash fares for travel between June 1 and Sept. 20 were up about 15%, with domestic points fares up 18%. That gap suggests prices continued to rise into May as airlines adjusted fares for peak-season demand and fuel costs. (thepointsguy.com) ### What is pushing fares higher now? The Points Guy said rising jet fuel costs are a central driver of the increase. Cudahy wrote that economists and travel analysts had warned for months that disruptions to oil traffic tied to the U.S.-Israel war in Iran were feeding through to airline fuel bills. In a March 10 article, The Points Guy had already warned that airfare could spike “within a week” as oil prices climbed and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was snarled. (pointspath.com) CBS News reported on April 24 that jet fuel prices, which account for roughly 25% to 30% of airline costs, were up by more than $2 a gallon earlier in the month. Henry Harteveldt of Atmosphere Research Group told CBS that travelers should not wait for summer fares to fall, and United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the carrier had raised fares by 15% to 20%. (thepointsguy.com) ### Is this only a U.S. domestic story? European routes were showing even steeper increases in The Points Guy’s May 13 report. The article said fares to London were up nearly 45% from a year earlier, and Milan fares were up 38%, based on Kayak data cited in the piece. That suggests the pressure is not limited to domestic flying or one region. (cbsnews.com) NerdWallet’s May 12 travel inflation report pointed in the same direction at a broader level. The company said airfare costs were up 20.7% over the past year, helping push overall U.S. travel costs 9% higher than a year earlier. ### What does The Points Guy say travelers should do differently? The May 13 article advised travelers to stay flexible on dates and destinations, use points or trip credits where possible, and consider less conventional booking strategies. (thepointsguy.com) The report also said waiting until the 21-to-35-day booking window may not help this year: cash prices in that period were up 33% year over year, and award pricing was up 28%, according to the article. (nerdwallet.com) Rob Handfield, a supply-chain expert at North Carolina State University, gave similar advice in The Points Guy’s March 10 report. “If you’re buying for three or four months down the road, I would lock it in and buy now,” he said. CBS News also quoted Harteveldt urging travelers to move quickly and, if possible, travel later in the summer when demand is usually lower. (thepointsguy.com) ### Are airlines changing anything besides ticket prices? CBS News reported that airlines including Alaska, American, Delta, JetBlue, Southwest and United had increased bag fees as fuel costs rose. The Points Guy’s May 13 article also warned that checked-bag fees had recently increased and were unlikely to fall soon, adding to the total cost of a trip beyond the base fare. (thepointsguy.com) Points Path said on May 5 that some airlines were also rolling back planned summer capacity growth to curb unprofitable flying and conserve fuel. United planned to cut summer flight volume by 5%, Scott Kirby told CBS News. Fewer seats, combined with strong demand, can keep fares elevated into the peak travel months ahead of Labor Day. (cbsnews.com) ### What should travelers watch next? Labor Day falls on Sept. 7 in 2026, and the Memorial Day-to-Labor Day stretch remains the key summer booking window covered in The Points Guy’s analysis. Sean Cudahy’s May 13 article and Points Path’s fare updates are the named sources to watch for fresh pricing data as airlines continue adjusting schedules, fees and fares through the season. (thepointsguy.com) (pointspath.com)