Europe's Nuclear Posture Hardens
In a significant strategic shift, France announced plans to expand its nuclear arsenal and will allow temporary deployment of its nuclear-armed aircraft to other European allies. The move comes as tensions rise globally, with Polish leaders now openly discussing the possibility of their country eventually seeking its own nuclear weapons.
France's nuclear spending is set to rise significantly, with deterrence already accounting for 13% of the defense budget. An upcoming update to the 2024-2030 Military Programming Law is expected to add €36 billion to the previously planned €413 billion framework to cover the costs of this expansion. The new French "forward deterrence" doctrine could involve temporarily deploying nuclear-armed Rafale fighter jets and their new ASN4G hypersonic missiles to allied nations. This marks a major shift, as France has historically maintained its nuclear forces, known as the *Force de dissuasion*, as a strictly sovereign tool. The decision on any potential use of the weapons would remain exclusively with the French president. Eight countries are in discussions with Paris about the new framework: Germany, Poland, the U.K., the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, and Denmark. Germany and France have already formed a "nuclear steering group" to coordinate, with German forces expected to participate in French nuclear exercises this year. Poland's government has confirmed its participation in the talks, but the proposal has sparked internal debate. President Karol Nawrocki's office has expressed a preference for joining the existing US-led NATO nuclear sharing program, questioning if France's arsenal is adequate to provide a protective "umbrella." A recent poll showed that over 50% of Poles support the country obtaining a nuclear deterrent in some form. The existing NATO nuclear sharing program involves the stationing of US B-61 nuclear bombs in five member countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. Any use of these weapons requires authorization from the US President and the UK Prime Minister, following consultation within NATO's Nuclear Planning Group, which France does not participate in. While some allies like Denmark and Sweden have supported the dialogue with France, they have already ruled out hosting nuclear weapons on their territory. The initiative is seen by many in Europe as a move to create a more independent European defense capability amid concerns about the long-term reliability of US security guarantees. The Kremlin has responded critically to the French announcement. Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova advised the "Parisian strategists not to forget in their militaristic frenzy that Russia also has nuclear deterrence forces" and to "cool down a bit."
