New York Times: $25 billion jet-fuel bill

The New York Times opinion section said on June 1 that U.S. carriers will likely pay about $25 billion more for jet fuel in 2026 than expected, putting a new figure on the fuel shock that airlines have been describing for weeks. The estimate, published in an opinion essay about the summer travel season, comes as carriers and federal data have already shown a sharp jump in fuel spending this spring. (bts.gov) The figure is large relative to recent industry profits: U.S. scheduled passenger airlines posted $6.7 billion in after-tax net income in 2024 and $6.0 billion in 2025, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. (news.aa.com) ### Where does the $25 billion figure sit against recent airline profits? The Bureau of Transportation Statistics said U.S. scheduled passenger airlines earned $6.7 billion after tax in 2024 and $6.0 billion after tax in 2025. That puts the two-year total at $12.7 billion, below the roughly $25 billion fuel overrun cited by the Times opinion piece. BTS also said total 2025 operating expenses for the 25 scheduled passenger airlines were $241.2 billion, with fuel accounting for $40.4 billion, or 16.8% of operating expenses. In 2024, fuel represented 18.8% of total operating expenses, according to the same federal data. (bts.gov) ### What are airlines themselves telling investors about fuel costs? American Airlines said on April 23 that its full-year 2026 outlook assumed a greater than $4 billion increase in expense related to higher jet-fuel prices. The company said the midpoint of its guidance was expected to be approximately flat to 2025 despite that increase. (bts.gov) Reuters reported the same day that American expected its jet-fuel bill to rise by more than $4 billion in 2026, with second-quarter fuel prices running at about $4 a gallon. Reuters said American had cut its 2026 profit forecast and that other major carriers were also facing margin pressure from higher fuel costs. (bts.gov) ### How much have fuel costs already risen this year? The Bureau of Transportation Statistics said on May 6 that U.S. airlines spent $5.06 billion on fuel in March 2026, up 56.4% from $3.23 billion in February and up 30.4% from $3.88 billion in March 2025. (news.aa.com) BTS said airlines used 1.615 billion gallons in March and paid an average of $3.13 a gallon, up from $2.39 in February and $2.41 a year earlier. CNBC reported that the March surge followed disruptions tied to the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing the same federal data. Reuters likewise reported on April 23 that fuel prices had surged after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted traffic through the strait, a key route for global oil supplies. (money.usnews.com) ### Why does this show up so quickly in airline earnings? American Airlines reported a first-quarter 2026 GAAP net loss of $382 million and said winter storms reduced revenue by an estimated $320 million, even before the full effect of later fuel increases showed up. The company said demand remained strong, but higher fuel prices were still large enough to reshape full-year guidance. (bts.gov) Reuters reported that airlines were trying to offset part of the increase through fare hikes, capacity cuts and higher ancillary fees, but said those steps were unlikely to fully absorb the jump in fuel costs. (cnbc.com) That assessment was attributed to carrier actions and earnings guidance changes already disclosed in April. ### What should readers watch next? The next hard data point is the Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ monthly fuel-cost releases, which track gallons consumed, total spending and average cost per gallon for U.S. airlines. Individual carriers are also likely to update investors in second-quarter earnings reports and conference calls, as American Airlines did on April 23. (news.aa.com) (bts.gov) (money.usnews.com)