Hormuz traffic may not recover
The IMF warned that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may never return to pre‑crisis levels, raising the prospect of lasting rerouting for maritime trade. Analysts also flagged the risk that Iran could use Houthi allies to threaten the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait as a follow‑on pressure point, which would further strain global corridor options. (jpost.com, foxnews.com)
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still a trickle weeks after the fighting began, and the International Monetary Fund says some traffic may never come back. (portwatch.imf.org) The International Monetary Fund’s PortWatch monitor says disruption in Hormuz has been ongoing since February 28, 2026, after attacks on commercial ships prompted carriers to stop sailing the route. The fund says the strait handles about 25 percent of global oil moved by sea. (portwatch.imf.org) United Nations Trade and Development said on April 1 that daily ship transits through Hormuz fell from an average of 129 in February to 6 in March, a drop of about 95 percent. It said the waterway remains “practically closed.” (unctad.org) A two-week United States-Iran ceasefire announced last week has not restored normal passage. CNBC reported on April 9 that just four transits were recorded that Wednesday, while more than 400 oil tankers and dozens of liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas carriers were still waiting outside the Gulf. (cnbc.com) The bottleneck is not only military risk. United States Naval Institute News reported on April 9 that many ships are still using an Iran-controlled route around Larak Island, and Iran said mines had forced traffic into two Tehran-controlled lanes. (news.usni.org) That is why analysts are comparing Hormuz to the Red Sea. The International Monetary Fund warning cited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where shipping lanes have still not recovered since Houthi attacks began there in late 2023. (jpost.com) Bab el-Mandeb is the narrow gate between Yemen and Djibouti and Eritrea that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Time reported on April 9 that Iranian officials have openly raised the prospect of pressure there as negotiations over Hormuz continue. (time.com) The Houthi movement gives Tehran leverage on that route because the group controls much of Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Time reported that a Yemeni military official said in late March that closing Bab el-Mandeb was among the Houthis’ main options if the war escalated further. (time.com) Shipping companies are already acting on that risk. Maersk said on March 1 that it would pause future Trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and reroute affected services around the Cape of Good Hope. (maersk.com) The result is a trade map with fewer safe shortcuts and longer detours. Even if guns stay quiet in Hormuz, shipowners, insurers and cargo customers now have a fresh example of how fast a chokepoint can reopen on paper and stay half-closed in practice. (cnbc.com)
