Hormuz and Red Sea Strain

Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz only temporarily and warned it could shut the passage again if the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues. (usnews.com) Reuters reported on April 17 that Tehran allowed some commercial traffic back through Hormuz after a ceasefire-linked pause, while still tying future access to the blockade dispute with Washington. Ship-tracking data reviewed by Reuters showed more than a dozen tankers moved through after the restriction eased. (usnews.com) (msn.com) Maritime advisories have not treated that reopening as a return to normal. The Joint Maritime Information Center said on April 12 that the threat level in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman remained “critical,” and that Iran was still asserting that transits required prior coordination with its armed forces. (ukmto.org) The contrast is that the Red Sea, which had been the other major danger zone for tankers, has recently looked more usable for at least some voyages. The same Joint Maritime Information Center note rated the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Gulf of Aden at “moderate” and said there had been no confirmed incidents affecting maritime traffic there. (ukmto.org) South Korea provided the clearest example on April 17, when its oceans ministry said a Korean tanker carrying crude had safely exited the Red Sea after loading Saudi oil. Reuters also reported on April 15 that Seoul had secured 273 million barrels of crude from the Middle East and Kazakhstan through year-end on routes outside Hormuz. (straitstimes.com) (msn.com) Hormuz is the short outlet from the Gulf’s oil terminals to the open ocean; the Red Sea route works mainly for barrels loaded on Saudi Arabia’s west coast at ports such as Yanbu. A tanker can use one route and avoid the other only if the crude is produced, piped and loaded on the right side of the Arabian Peninsula. (wsj.com) (chosun.com) That is why shipping managers are dealing with two different maps at once. In Hormuz, companies are weighing coordination demands, naval enforcement and possible renewed closures; in the Red Sea, they are weighing war-risk premiums and whether a “moderate” threat is low enough to resume selected sailings. (ukmto.org) (maersk.com) Carriers have said the uncertainty is changing day-to-day operating decisions, not just headline route maps. Maersk said on April 9 that information around any Hormuz resumption was still scarce and that it was urgently seeking clarification before treating the passage as reliably open. (maersk.com) For oil buyers and shipowners, the immediate question is no longer whether one corridor is fully open and the other fully shut. It is whether a tanker can count on a single voyage plan lasting from loading window to discharge berth. (usnews.com) (ukmto.org)