Analysis Credits Tariffs for Economic Strength
A new analysis from Jillian Michaels breaks down recent economic wins under former President Trump, including lower gas prices and a booming stock market. The commentary argues that despite criticism, tariffs ultimately strengthened the U.S. economy, pointing to the results as proof of the policy's success.
During the first Trump administration, tariffs were imposed on goods including steel, aluminum, and a wide range of Chinese products, leading to retaliatory tariffs from other nations. These policies were estimated to represent a significant tax increase, with one 2025 analysis calculating the cost per U.S. household at $1,000 annually. Key sectors like manufacturing and agriculture were heavily impacted. Automakers and electronics companies faced higher costs for imported components, while farmers, particularly soybean and pork producers, saw demand from China plummet due to retaliatory duties. The S&P 500 saw an 81.4% total return during Trump's first term (2017-2020), a figure that ranks fourth for investor returns over a four-year presidential term since 1980. However, the market also experienced periods of volatility directly linked to shifting trade policies and tariff announcements. Overall unemployment increased from 4.7% to 6.4% during his first four years in office, a period that included the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw the unemployment rate peak at 14.8% in April 2020. Before the pandemic, the unemployment rate had reached a 50-year low of 3.5%. Inflation remained relatively low and stable for most of his first term, averaging about 1.9%. This was below the Federal Reserve's 2% target, supported by stable supply chains and lower energy costs prior to 2021. Economic growth, measured by real GDP, saw an annual rate of 2.2% in 2025, a slight decline from 2.8% in 2024. Some analyses, like one from the Penn Wharton Budget Model, projected that the tariffs would reduce long-run GDP and wages. The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in 2020 was $2.17, the lowest annual average since 2016. This drop was largely influenced by the drastic reduction in travel and global demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
