February CPI due today
Statistics Canada was set to publish February CPI with consensus calling for a fall to about 1.9% (from 2.3%), making today’s print pivotal for BoC messaging and near‑term mortgage expectations, analysts reported. A surprise on either side would change the odds on when rate easing becomes plausible.
Statistics Canada will publish the February Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on March 16, 2026, according to the agency’s release schedule. (www150.statcan.gc.ca) Bank of Canada “preferred” core reads for January were running above target—CPI‑trim 2.4%, CPI‑median 2.5% and CPI‑common 2.7%—figures the Governing Council explicitly monitors. (bankofcanada.ca) The BoC’s policy rate remains 2.25% after the January hold, and Canada’s two‑year Government bond yield has been trading around the mid‑2% area (about 2.65–2.71% in early March), a key channel for mortgage repricing. (bankofcanada.ca) Economists are split on the policy response: BMO’s scenario still models roughly 75 basis points of easing by spring 2026, while RBC’s team expects the Bank to hold the policy rate through the rest of 2026. (betterdwelling.com) Wholesale and retail mortgage pricing already reflects that uncertainty—market aggregators show best‑available five‑year fixed offers near the high‑3% range (about 3.7–3.8%), while the big‑bank prime rate sits at 4.45%. (ratehub.ca) Housing data entering the CPI print are mixed: CREA reported a national average sale price of $652,941 for January and flagged the next monthly package for March 17, while TRREB’s February snapshot showed a composite benchmark down 7.9% year‑over‑year and an average sale price of $1,008,968 in the Toronto region. (stats.crea.ca) Market‑implied policy probabilities and short‑end yields are the immediate transmission mechanism for any surprise: live OIS/CORRA‑based probabilities move rapidly after releases, and traders have pushed two‑year yields roughly 20–30 basis points in the last month as inflation signals shifted. (bankofcanadaodds.com)
