Shoppers flock to discounters
Households are trading down: major-retailer weakness is coinciding with rising foot traffic and sales at discount chains like Ross as consumers hunt value. (10news.com) For investors, that’s a timely signal that retail winners this cycle may be low-price operators and supply-chain-efficient chains rather than premium brands. (10news.com)
A shopper who used to buy a $60 sweater at a department store is now hunting for a $24 version at Ross, and the traffic data says millions of people are making the same switch. A San Diego television report published on April 10 said foot traffic and sales are climbing at discount chains even as some larger retailers struggle to keep stores open. (10news.com) This is showing up in the numbers before it shows up in mall parking lots. Placer.ai said first-quarter 2025 visits rose 6.5% at Burlington, 3.8% at T.J. Maxx, 3.3% at Marshalls, and 0.5% at Ross, while Ross still beat the broader apparel segment. (placer.ai) The reason is simple: off-price chains buy branded leftovers, canceled orders, and excess inventory, then sell them with fewer frills. T.J. Maxx owner The TJX Companies said fourth-quarter comparable store sales rose 5% for the period ended February 1, 2025, and said that gain was driven by more customer transactions. (tjx.com) Ross is seeing the same pattern in a slightly different way. Ross Stores reported fourth-quarter 2024 comparable store sales up 3% on sales of $5.9 billion for the quarter ended February 1, 2025, after a 7% comparable sales gain a year earlier. (businesswire.com) Burlington’s numbers were even stronger at the end of 2024. Burlington said fourth-quarter comparable store sales rose 6%, total 2024 sales rose 11%, and the company pointed directly to supply-chain improvements as part of the reason margins improved. (finance.yahoo.com) That supply-chain piece matters because off-price retail is a treasure hunt business. If a chain can move a truckload of branded coats from a canceled order into stores in days instead of weeks, it can turn somebody else’s inventory problem into its own markdown-free sale. (finance.yahoo.com) The contrast is sharpest at retailers that depend more on planned seasonal assortments and full-price discretionary spending. Target reported on March 4, 2026 that full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share fell to $7.57 from $8.86 a year earlier even though it expects only a small comparable-sales increase in 2026. (target.com) Consumers are not shutting their wallets completely. The National Retail Federation said on April 2, 2025 that United States retail sales for 2025 should still rise to between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion, but it also warned that policy uncertainty is weighing on confidence. (nrf.com) So the shift is less “people stopped shopping” and more “people changed where they shop.” When wages feel tighter and prices still feel high, a chain built around surprise bargains can gain customers even in the same quarter that a traditional retailer posts softer traffic. (10news.com) (placer.ai) That is why this story reaches past Ross and Burlington. In this stretch of the retail cycle, the winners look like the chains that can buy cheap, turn inventory fast, and make shoppers feel like they beat the system by finding a name brand on the wrong rack at the right price. (tjx.com)
