TSMC raises 2030 chip market forecast to $1.5T

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. raised its forecast for the global semiconductor market to more than $1.5 trillion by 2030, according to presentation materials released around its May 14 Taiwan technology symposium in Hsinchu. The company had previously projected a $1 trillion market by the end of the decade, according to the same materials cited by Reuters. TSMC said artificial intelligence and high-performance computing would be the main driver of the increase. The new outlook came as the world's largest contract chipmaker laid out a faster capacity buildout for advanced manufacturing and packaging. ### How big is the change in TSMC's market outlook? TSMC's new forecast adds roughly $500 billion to its prior 2030 industry estimate. Reuters reported on May 14 that the revised figure appeared in TSMC presentation materials ahead of the company's technology symposium in Taiwan. The company said the global semiconductor market would exceed $1.5 trillion by 2030, compared with its earlier $1 trillion projection. (money.usnews.com) Dr. Kevin Zhang, TSMC's senior vice president and deputy co-chief operating officer, was listed as the executive presenting the market outlook in the company's 2026 symposium materials. TSMC's symposium highlights page identifies Zhang under the "Market Outlook" section, tying the forecast to the company's formal event program. ### What does TSMC say will drive that growth? (money.usnews.com) AI and high-performance computing are expected to make up 55% of the 2030 semiconductor market, according to TSMC's materials cited by Reuters. Smartphones would account for 20% and automotive applications for 10%, the company said. That mix marks a shift in emphasis toward data-center and accelerator demand rather than the handset market that drove earlier semiconductor cycles. (tsmc.com) TSMC also said AI accelerator wafer demand is projected to rise 11-fold from 2022 to 2026. Reuters reported that TSMC expects capacity for its 2-nanometer and A16 technologies to grow at a compound annual rate of 70% from 2026 to 2028, while CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is forecast to expand at more than 80% annually from 2022 to 2027. CoWoS is widely used in AI chips, including Nvidia designs, Reuters reported. (money.usnews.com) ### Where is TSMC adding the capacity to support that demand? TSMC said it plans to build nine phases of wafer fabs and advanced packaging facilities in 2026. Reuters reported the company has been expanding capacity at a faster pace in 2025 and 2026 as it prepares for demand tied to advanced chips and packaging. (money.usnews.com) Arizona is one of the clearest examples of that buildout. Reuters reported TSMC's first Arizona fab is already in production, tool move-in for the second fab is planned for the second half of 2026, and construction of a third fab is under way. Work on a fourth fab and the site's first advanced packaging facility is expected to begin this year, Reuters said, citing TSMC's materials. (money.usnews.com) Japan and Germany also featured in the company's footprint update. Reuters reported that TSMC's first Japan fab is in volume production for 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer products, while plans for a second fab have been upgraded to 3-nanometer because of demand. In Germany, the fab under construction is progressing on schedule, Reuters reported. (money.usnews.com) ### Why does TSMC's forecast matter beyond one company? TSMC is the world's largest contract chipmaker, and its customer base includes many of the companies designing the processors used in AI servers, smartphones and cars. That gives its capacity plans unusual weight in industry forecasts, though the $1.5 trillion figure is still TSMC's projection rather than an industry consensus estimate. (money.usnews.com) The April 16 first-quarter earnings conference shows TSMC has been updating investors on AI-linked demand and capital plans through regular disclosures as well as symposium presentations. The market forecast therefore sits alongside a broader set of manufacturing and packaging targets the company has been publishing this year. (money.usnews.com) ### What comes next from TSMC? TSMC's 2026 events calendar shows the next technology symposium stop is scheduled for Amsterdam on May 28, followed by Shanghai on June 25 and Yokohama on July 3. The company has also listed a North America OIP Ecosystem Forum for Sept. 23 in Santa Clara. Those events are the next public venues where TSMC executives are likely to expand on the market forecast, node roadmaps and capacity plans. (investor.tsmc.com) (pr.tsmc.com)