Fatherland 1949 emerges Cannes frontrunner

Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland 1949” moved to the front of the Cannes awards conversation on Thursday as the 79th festival entered its final stretch. ComingSoon said the film had become the new Palme d’Or frontrunner based on prediction-market odds as of May 20, while IndieWire’s latest contenders list placed “Fatherland” among the titles with the strongest momentum rather than treating the race as settled. The festival runs from May 12 to May 23, according to Cannes’ official program. The late-festival shift reflects how unsettled the main competition remains. IndieWire’s ranking said “Paper Tiger,” “All of a Sudden,” “Fatherland,” and even the sci-fi title “Hope” were in the mix, while ComingSoon said two films still had a “strong shot” to overtake “Fatherland.” ### Why did “Fatherland 1949” jump into the lead? (comingsoon.net) ComingSoon reported on May 20 that “Fatherland,” originally titled “1949,” had become the predicted winner in a pair of betting markets, Kalshi and Polymarket. The outlet said those odds had been volatile since April and should be treated cautiously, but it nonetheless described the film as the new leader in the race. (indiewire.com) Deadline’s Cannes review, published six days earlier, called “Fatherland” a work of “artistic discipline” from Pawlikowski and said the director had turned large postwar themes into a tightly controlled film. RogerEbert.com also grouped the movie among the early competition titles shaping this year’s Palme d’Or contest. ### Which other films are still being treated as threats? (comingsoon.net) IndieWire’s May 20 contenders list said the field was still fluid and named “Paper Tiger” and “All of a Sudden” alongside “Fatherland” near the top of its ranking. The piece did not present a consensus winner, instead describing a competition in which several titles remained viable late in the festival. (deadline.com) French outlets pointed to different favorites. 20 Minutes wrote on May 20 that Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” could put the 2007 Palme winner “en route” to a second Palme d’Or, while Les Inrockuptibles declared of Emmanuel Marre’s “Notre salut,” “on a trouvé notre Palme d’or,” casting it as that publication’s choice for the prize. (indiewire.com) ### What is known about those rival films? Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” premiered in competition this week and Cannes’ own festival coverage described it as the Romanian director’s first foreign-language film. Deadline reported three days ago that the film, starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve, received the festival’s longest ovation of the year at its premiere. (20minutes.fr) Emmanuel Marre’s “Notre salut” is also in the main competition. Cannes’ official synopsis says the film is set in September 1940 as the Pétain regime takes shape, following Henri Marre’s arrival in Vichy with a self-published political treatise in his suitcase. ### What else has defined Cannes in its closing days? John Travolta received an honorary Palme d’Or on May 15, according to the Cannes media library and wire coverage. (festival-cannes.com) ABC News reported that artistic director Thierry Frémaux presented the surprise award before the screening of Travolta’s “Propeller One-Way Night Coach.” Rami Malek also drew attention on May 21 after Vanity Fair’s live blog and trade coverage highlighted his emotional response at the premiere of Ira Sachs’ “The Man I Love.” Variety and Deadline reported that the film premiered on May 20 in competition. (festival-cannes.com) ### When will Cannes settle the race? The 79th Cannes Film Festival ends on May 23, when the main competition jury is expected to reveal the Palme d’Or winner. (festival-cannes.com) Cannes’ official materials say this year’s edition runs from May 12 to May 23, leaving “Fatherland 1949,” “Fjord,” “Notre salut” and the other late-stage contenders only a short window before the jury’s decision. (festival-cannes.com) (vanityfair.com)