Iran threats push oil near $90
Iran vowed "continuous strikes" to push oil to $200/barrel, blocking US/Israel-bound tankers. US oil nears $90, impacting TX producers.
The Strait of Hormuz is a major concern, as roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes through it daily. Disruptions there have immediate consequences for global markets. President Trump has warned of a military response if Iran blocks the Strait. He stated the US would hit Iran "twenty times harder" than it already has. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. crude oil production to average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026. They also forecast it to rise to 13.8 million b/d in 2027. Higher oil prices are expected to lead to increased U.S. production. Some analysts believe that if Iranian oil exports are completely removed from the market, Brent crude could average $91/bbl in 4Q 2026. However, the EIA forecasts Brent crude to remain above $95/bbl for the next two months, before falling below $80/bbl in Q3 2026.
