AAA warns Memorial Day travel surge

Memorial Day travel is shaping up to be huge this year. AAA said on Monday, May 11, that 45 million Americans are expected to go at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25. That would edge past last year and set a new record for the holiday weekend. The headline is simple — more people are going somewhere anyway, even with pricier gas and tighter budgets. ### How big is the travel jump? It’s not a blowout increase, but it is enough to set a fresh high. AAA’s forecast is 45 million travelers, up slightly from 44.8 million in 2025. Last year already broke the old Memorial Day record, so this year is basically a record on top of a record. ### Are most people driving? (newsroom.aaa.com) Yes — by a lot. AAA expects 39.1 million people to travel by car, compared with 3.66 million by air and about 2.2 million by other modes like buses, trains, and cruises. That matters because the holiday pain point probably won’t be airports first. It’ll be highways, beach routes, and the usual choke points around metro areas. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Why are people still taking trips? Because Memorial Day is a weirdly resilient travel holiday. It’s a long weekend, it kicks off summer, and it doesn’t require a huge vacation plan to feel worth it. AAA’s own framing is that people are still prioritizing time away, even when costs are rising. Turns out a three-day trip is the kind of splurge many households will still defend. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### So where does gas fit in? Gas is the catch. Nationally, AAA said the average price for regular hit $4.55 a gallon on May 7 after two straight weekly jumps of 25 cents. That is $1.40 higher than a year earlier and the highest national level since 2022. So the road-trip boom is arriving at the same moment fuel gets more painful. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Why does California look worse? Because California is dealing with the same national rise on top of its own expensive baseline. The Auto Club said the statewide average for regular was $6.16 a gallon on May 7, up 15 cents in a week. Local TV coverage in Northern California described a smaller five-cent weekly increase in one consumer segment, but the broader statewide picture is still a sharp upswing. (gasprices.aaa.com) ### Is this only a travel story? Not really. It’s also a consumer-spending story. ABC10 tied the travel-cost backdrop to Mother’s Day spending, with Wells Fargo expecting restaurant meals to cost about 4% more this year and NRF projecting record Mother’s Day spending nationally. That tells you the broader pattern — people are still spending on experiences and family occasions, but the bill is getting heavier. (news.aaa-calif.com) ### What does this mean for travelers? If you’re flying, expect fuller planes. If you’re driving, expect more company on the road than almost any Memorial Day on record. And if you’re booking late, the cheap, easy options are likely to disappear first because this is not a soft-demand environment. That part is inference, but it follows pretty directly from record traveler counts and rising trip costs. (abc10.com) ### Bottom line? AAA’s warning is less about panic than math. A record 45 million people are expected to travel over Memorial Day weekend, and most of them will be in cars. So even before summer really starts, the roads look crowded, the fuel bill looks worse, and the easiest getaways may be the ones closest to home. (newsroom.aaa.com)