US-Iran War Enters 'Protracted' Phase
The U.S. war with Iran is now in its fourth day, with Washington shutting down several regional embassies and warning of a protracted conflict with no clear endgame. The campaign, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury,” began with an “unprecedented” wave of airstrikes, but President Trump’s stated objectives have reportedly begun to shift from missile defense to broader regime containment. Meanwhile, Senator Marco Rubio has warned that “the hardest hits are yet to come.”
The initial wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, which killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, involved a technologically layered approach with drones, long-range bombers, and sea-launched missiles. In the first 24 hours alone, over 1,000 targets were hit, focusing on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' command and control, air defenses, and missile and drone launch sites. This conflict follows a significant U.S. military buildup in the region, the largest since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. This includes the deployment of Carrier Strike Groups led by the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford, as well as additional F-22 and F-35 fighter jets to bases in the Middle East. There are currently an estimated 40,000 U.S. servicemembers in the region. In response to the initial attacks, Iran has launched hundreds of retaliatory missile and drone strikes. These have not only targeted Israel and U.S. military assets in countries like Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, but also civilian sites, including airports. Gulf states have reported intercepting a significant number of these projectiles. The international reaction has been divided. Countries like China and Russia have condemned the strikes, with China calling it unacceptable to "blatantly kill the leader of a sovereign state". Conversely, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine have expressed support for the U.S. and Israel. Many nations and the UN have urged restraint and a de-escalation of the conflict. Iran possesses the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, which is a core component of its defense strategy. Their inventory includes short and medium-range missiles capable of reaching all of the Middle East and parts of Europe, with some systems having a range of up to 2,500 kilometers. To protect these assets, Iran has constructed at least five underground "missile cities" for storage and concealed launches. The conflict has already impacted the global economy, with Brent crude oil prices jumping by $10 a barrel. Economists are concerned that a prolonged war could push oil past $100 a barrel, which would worsen inflation and slow economic growth. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, is a major point of concern, with Iran threatening its closure. The current conflict follows a period of heightened tensions and failed diplomatic efforts. A third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on February 26 reportedly ended with the sides far from an agreement. Just days before the strikes, Iran's Foreign Minister had stated that a "historic opportunity" for a nuclear agreement was "within reach". This is not the first direct military engagement between these adversaries. In June 2025, the U.S. conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. Following those strikes, Iran's response was limited to an attack on a U.S. base in Qatar, a far more restrained retaliation than what has been observed in the current conflict.
