Fed set to hold
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at today’s meeting but will publish fresh 2026 projections and Powell’s press conference is the real market mover—markets are hunting for hints on the timing of the next cut ( ). Traders on X are already pricing fewer rate cuts after the recent hot inflation prints, so guidance tone—not just the rate decision—will drive positioning (x.com).
FOMC statement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern, with Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference set to begin at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. (ebc.com) The Federal Reserve’s current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.50%–3.75%, the level the committee has maintained since late 2025. (federalreserve.gov) Market-implied short-term rates (the effective fed funds midpoint) are trading around 3.62%–3.64% going into the meeting, according to futures-derived dashboards that update in real time. (rateprobability.com) U.S. wholesale inflation surprised on the upside in February: headline PPI rose 0.7% month‑over‑month and core PPI (ex‑food & energy) rose about 0.5%, a print markets flagged as “hotter than expected.” (bloomberg.com) CME Group’s FedWatch-based metrics show a near‑certainty that the Fed will keep the 3.50%–3.75% range on March 18 (about 99% priced), and they moved markedly higher for April and June holds compared with a month earlier. (cbsnews.com) Treasury markets reacted to the PPI jump: the two‑year yield ticked up roughly 3.7 basis points while the 10‑year rose about 0.6 basis points, as traders trimmed expectations for near‑term cuts. (ainvest.com) The FOMC remains divided behind the scenes — minutes and meeting records from the January session show two governors (Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran) dissented in favor of an immediate 25‑bp cut, a split markets will watch for signs of at today’s meeting. (prod-i.a.dj.com)
