Russian Strikes on Ukraine Hit 3-Year Peak
Overnight missile strikes by Russia on Ukraine reached a three-year peak in February, according to an AFP analysis. The escalation comes as ground forces report 158 combat engagements in a single 24-hour period.
The February escalation represents the most intense period of aerial bombardment in three years, with Russia launching 288 missiles in overnight strikes, a 113% increase from January. This onslaught is part of a broader winter campaign that saw over 14,670 guided aerial bombs, 738 missiles, and nearly 19,000 attack drones deployed against Ukraine in three months. The primary targets of this intensified assault have been Ukraine's energy and critical civilian infrastructure, a strategy aimed at collapsing the country's ability to function. This has led to widespread power outages, with Ukraine's energy generation capacity falling from 33.7 GW before the full-scale invasion to approximately 14 GW by January 2026. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for top Russian commanders for the war crime of causing excessive harm to civilians by targeting these sites. On the ground, combat remains fierce, with frontline engagements recently exceeding 200 per day. The most intense fighting has been concentrated along the Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Huliaipole axes in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Despite the intensity of these assaults, Russian forces have so far failed to achieve a significant operational breakthrough. In response to the ground pressure, Ukrainian forces have conducted localized counterattacks, particularly in the south near Huliaipole and Oleksandrivka, even managing to regain control of some settlements. These actions have forced Russian troops in some sectors to shift to a defensive posture. Overall, while Russian forces gained approximately 50 square miles of Ukrainian territory between late January and late February 2026, they also lost 33 square miles in the last week of that period. The strategic logic behind Russia's escalation is to grind down Ukrainian will and military capability through a war of attrition, as a decisive frontline victory appears unattainable. By targeting infrastructure, Russia aims to make Ukraine unlivable, disrupt its defense industry, and force Kyiv to exhaust its limited air defense resources protecting cities instead of frontline positions. This air campaign is part of Russia's preparation for an anticipated Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, particularly targeting the "Fortress Belt" of heavily fortified cities in Donetsk Oblast. Recent artillery strikes near Kramatorsk suggest the initial phases of this offensive preparation are already underway. In retaliation and to disrupt Russia's war financing, Ukraine has escalated its own long-range drone strikes against Russian oil depots and refineries. This strategy aims to cut off the fossil fuel revenues that fund the Kremlin's military efforts. The international community continues to condemn Russia's actions, with the European Parliament calling for massively increased military support for Ukraine and enhanced pressure on Moscow. The United Kingdom and other allies are providing economic, humanitarian, and military assistance while imposing further sanctions on Russia and Belarus.
