Favorites still favored

Betting markets still have the higher seed in front in seven of the eight National Basketball Association first-round series as of Thursday, April 23. New York’s Game 3 against Atlanta is the only matchup priced as a true toss-up. (nytimes.com) The bracket helps explain why: every Eastern Conference series is either tied 1-1 or led by the favorite, and in the West the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder are up 2-0 while the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs and third-seeded Denver Nuggets are tied 1-1. ESPN’s playoff tracker lists only one series with the lower seed ahead right now: Houston’s matchup with the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Lakers. (espn.com) The Athletic reported that sportsbooks still favor the better seed in every series except Rockets-Lakers, where Houston has moved in front because of the Lakers’ injuries. The same story said Knicks-Hawks Game 3 had been bet down to a pick ’em, even with New York still favored to win the series. (nytimes.com) That split between series prices and single-game prices is normal in a best-of-seven playoff. A team can keep the edge because it owns home court in Games 5 and 7 while still facing one close road game once the series shifts cities. (espn.com) The format is built to reward regular-season results. The team with the better record hosts Games 1, 2, 5 and 7 under the National Basketball Association’s 2-2-1-1-1 setup, which gives favorites more chances to close a series at home. (nba.com) The standings also show why oddsmakers opened the bracket this way. Oklahoma City entered as the West’s No. 1 seed, Detroit and Boston took the top two spots in the East, and New York-Cleveland landed in the 3-4 range that usually produces the tightest first-round prices. (espn.com) Some of the current series odds are no longer close. Yahoo’s Thursday bracket page listed Cleveland at -2200 against Toronto and Oklahoma City at -100000 against Phoenix, while Knicks-Hawks sat much tighter at Knicks -190 and Hawks +160. (sports.yahoo.com) The first round began on April 18, and the next test for the “favorites still favored” theme comes as more series move to Games 3 and 4 on the lower seed’s floor. If those road games stay coin flips instead of turning into upsets, the bracket will keep looking like the seed lines suggested. (espn.com)