US Economy in 2025 Saw Slowed Job Growth, Deficits
A Morning Brew social media thread recapped key US economic indicators for 2025, noting that job growth slowed to 181,000, the weakest non-recession pace in over 20 years. The summary also highlighted 2.4% headline inflation, rising coffee and beef prices, and persistent trade and budget deficits.
- The slowdown in job growth comes after the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its 2025 estimates, indicating that average monthly job gains were actually around 15,000, a significant drop from the 122,000 average in 2024. The unemployment rate in January 2026 was 4.3%, slightly down from 4.4% in December 2025. - The 2.4% headline inflation for 2025 marked a decrease from 2.7% in December 2025. For comparison, the average inflation rate in the U.S. from 1914 to 2026 was 3.29%. - Coffee prices reached a historical high in February 2025, driven by severe weather in major producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, speculative investing, and supply chain issues. - Beef prices saw a 15% increase in 2025, fueled by the smallest U.S. cattle inventories in 75 years. This reduction in herds is linked to drought conditions and high feed costs, leading to a 1.2 billion pound decrease in beef production compared to 2024. - The U.S. goods and services deficit for 2025 was $901.5 billion, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the $903.5 billion deficit in 2024. For most of the post-World War II era, the United States has run an annual trade deficit. - The federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 was $1.78 trillion, a $41 billion decrease from the previous year. Since 2001, the U.S. government has run a budget deficit each year. - While job growth was modest nationwide, some states like Missouri (+1.7%), North Carolina (+1.5%), and South Carolina (+1.3%) saw the fastest increases in employment in 2025. In absolute numbers, Texas added the most jobs at 120,700. - Real GDP growth was 2.2% in 2025, a slight deceleration from the 2.4% growth seen in 2024. Projections suggest real GDP growth will slow to 1.7% in 2026 before rebounding.
