West/Central Africa hunger alert
Up to 55 million people in West and Central Africa could face 'crisis hunger or worse' during the June–August lean season, the World Food Programme has warned. Rising oil prices from Middle East instability are already pushing up transport and fertilizer costs—an Omani analyst warned that a prolonged conflict could tip the world toward stagflation, which would deepen import-dependent countries' food crises.
[WFP reported]wfp.org that more than 13 million children across the region are expected to suffer malnutrition in 2026, with over three million people projected to reach emergency (IPC4) levels and about 15,000 in Nigeria’s Borno State flagged at catastrophic (IPC5) risk. WFP’s planning [documents show]wfpusa.org the agency intends to prioritise feeding some 110 million people in 2026 at an estimated cost of US$13 billion, while its public funding tracker records total contributions of US$907,350,866 as of 9 March 2026. wfp.org [UNHCR recorded]unhcr.org roughly 12.7 million people forcibly displaced in West and Central Africa in 2025, and [WFP noted]wfp.org that Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger together account for about 77% of the region’s food‑insecure caseload. Market [reporting noted]economictimes.indiatimes.com that freight rates doubled in two weeks and shipping costs have spiked to roughly $14.50 per barrel of crude, tightening logistics and raising transport bills for food and inputs, a trend reinforced by the IEA’s March 2026 oil market analysis. Trade and input risks are compounding: the Carnegie [Endowment estimated]carnegieendowment.org that about one‑third of seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the World [Bank projected]blogs.worldbank.org sharp urea price increases (about +15% in recent projections), and the Fertilizer [Institute warned]tfi.org that cargo‑insurance cancellations are leaving shipments idle. Credit‑market and policy risk [monitors warned]timeskuwait.com that prolonged disruption could push oil above $100/barrel in downside scenarios, and the World Economic [Forum flagged]weforum.org that such shocks would reshuffle supply chains and raise food‑price inflation risks for import‑dependent economies in the region.
