Europe's jet‑fuel crunch
Airlines and regulators are warning that Europe could face summer flight disruptions because refiners are short on jet fuel amid fallout from the Iran war and a longer-term decline in refining capacity. (reuters.com) The IEA warned Europe may have “maybe six weeks” of jet fuel left and ACI Europe said supplies could run critically low within about three weeks — and those supply concerns are stacking on top of recent Lufthansa industrial action that produced hundreds of cancellations. (qz.com) (travelandtourworld.com)
Europe’s airlines are warning that a shortage of jet fuel could start disrupting summer flights within weeks if supplies do not recover. (abcnews.com) The International Energy Agency’s executive director, Fatih Birol, said on April 16 that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel left if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked and refineries do not return to normal operations. The Airports Council International Europe trade group had already warned the European Commission on April 9 that airport fuel supplies could turn “critical” within about three weeks. (abcnews.com) (businesstravelnewseurope.com) The immediate problem is not just crude oil. Jets need refined kerosene, and Europe buys large volumes of that fuel through the Gulf while also relying on refineries in Asia that cut runs by about 3 million barrels a day between February and April, according to the International Energy Agency. (hydrocarbonprocessing.com) (iea.org) Europe’s exposure has been building for years. Reuters reported that more than 30 refineries, equal to 16% of the continent’s refining capacity, have shut over the past 25 years as North Sea production declined and fuel plants closed. (hydrocarbonprocessing.com) That leaves airlines facing a bottleneck at the worst point in the calendar. The Airports Council International Europe letter said the peak summer season would lift jet-fuel demand just as inventories tighten, raising the risk of rationing, flight cuts and wider economic damage. (cnbc.com) (businesstravelnewseurope.com) Even a ceasefire would not quickly fix the market. Politico reported last week that airlines and fuel suppliers expect elevated prices and possible shortages to last for months because reopening the shipping route would not immediately restore damaged supply chains and refining output. (politico.eu) The fuel threat is landing on top of labor disruption at Lufthansa, one of Europe’s biggest network carriers. A pilots’ strike on April 13 and 14 caused hundreds of cancellations, and Lufthansa said it could operate only about one-third of short-haul flights and roughly half of long-haul services during the walkout. (bloomberg.com) (straitstimes.com) Cabin crew then called a second strike for April 15 and 16, extending the disruption at Frankfurt and Munich. Deutsche Welle reported on April 13 that Lufthansa was facing four consecutive days of labor action after hundreds of flights were already canceled. (dw.com) For travelers, the risk is now twofold: airlines are still working through strike-hit schedules, and the region’s fuel cushion is shrinking as summer bookings rise. If fuel flows and refinery runs do not recover soon, the warning from Paris and Brussels is the same: Europe may have to fly less. (abcnews.com) (cnbc.com)
