Markets eye May consumer confidence

The Conference Board is scheduled to release its May consumer confidence index on Tuesday, May 26, putting household sentiment at the front of a week that also includes U.S. inflation and growth data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has set Thursday, May 28, for both its April personal income and outlays report — which includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — and its second estimate of first-quarter 2026 gross domestic product. April’s consumer confidence reading stood at 92.8, up 0.6 point from a revised 92.2 in March, according to The Conference Board. Dana M. Peterson, the group’s chief economist, said confidence “edged up in April but was overall little changed,” even as respondents showed concern about rising gasoline prices tied to a jump in Brent crude during the Middle East conflict. (fxstreet.com) ### Why are traders watching consumer confidence first? Tuesday’s report matters because it offers one of the earliest readouts this week on how households are absorbing higher prices, labor-market conditions and market volatility. The Conference Board says the survey tracks consumers’ views on business conditions, jobs, income, inflation, stock prices and interest rates. (conference-board.org) The April details showed a split picture. The Present Situation Index slipped 0.3 point to 123.8, while the Expectations Index rose 1.2 points to 72.2, The Conference Board said. ### What did the last confidence report say about the economy? The April survey period ran from April 1 to April 22 and included what The Conference Board described as a temporary two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict beginning April 8, along with a rebound in U.S. equities. (conference-board.org) Peterson said assessments of current and expected business conditions both declined moderately from the prior month, but labor-market views and income expectations improved modestly. (conference-board.org) The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, published May 22, also pointed to a mixed backdrop. The index rose 0.1% in April to 97.4 after a 0.6% decline in March, though it was still down 0.7% over the six months from October 2025 through April 2026. ### What else is on the U.S. calendar this week? Thursday’s government releases are likely to carry the heaviest policy weight. (conference-board.org) The Bureau of Economic Analysis says it will publish April personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. EDT on May 28, alongside GDP and corporate profits for the first quarter. The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. BEA data show the headline PCE price index rose 3.5% in March from a year earlier, after 2.8% in February, and the next release is due May 28. (conference-board.org) ### Where does growth stand going into the new GDP estimate? The first estimate for U.S. first-quarter GDP showed the economy growing at a 2.0% annualized rate, after 0.5% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, the BEA said on April 30. (bea.gov) The agency said the increase reflected gains in investment, exports, consumer spending and government spending, while imports also increased. (bea.gov) BEA also reported that consumer spending rose 0.9% in March after a 0.6% increase in February. That spending data will be updated in Thursday’s personal income and outlays release. ### Why is oil part of the conversation around this data week? Reuters reported in May that U.S.-Iran diplomacy remained a source of oil-market volatility as traders weighed the possibility of changes in crude supply. (bea.gov) The Conference Board’s April confidence report already tied consumer concerns about gasoline prices to the earlier surge in Brent crude during the Middle East conflict. (bea.gov) Tuesday’s confidence release is due first, followed by Thursday’s PCE inflation and GDP reports. Those three scheduled readings — May consumer confidence, April PCE and the second estimate of first-quarter GDP — make up the main U.S. macro calendar for the week beginning May 25. (fxstreet.com) (conference-board.org)