U.S.-China trade swings continue
- Chinese and American officials are heading toward a mid-May Xi-Trump summit after months of tariff swings, with trade talks still focused on tariffs and rare earths. - Trump’s China tariffs reached about 145% in early 2025, while China kept a 10% added tariff on U.S. goods after suspending 24%. - Analysts say trade deals alone may not steady ties before the summit. (scmp.com)
Washington and Beijing are still moving toward a May 14-15 summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, even after a year of tariff spikes, legal setbacks and uneven negotiations. (usnews.com) (scmp.com) Trump opened his second term by raising tariffs on Chinese goods to about 145% in early 2025, according to Reuters. China retaliated, and the two sides later settled into what Reuters called an “uneasy détente.” (usnews.com) China then adjusted its own tariffs on U.S. imports on November 10, 2025, suspending a 24% additional rate for one year while keeping a 10% additional tariff in place. Beijing said the change followed bilateral economic and trade consultations. (mof.gov.cn) The next phase added chips to the fight. A January 14, 2026 presidential proclamation said semiconductor imports threatened U.S. national security, and related measures took effect in mid-January. (federalregister.gov) (whitehouse.gov) Trade officials are still talking, but mostly by video. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said this month that preparatory talks with Chinese counterparts would be virtual, not a pre-summit trip to Beijing. (scmp.com) Greer also said the United States wants to keep “substantial tariffs” on Chinese goods, preserve access to Chinese rare earths and avoid a broader push to expand bilateral investment before the summit. (scmp.com) That leaves the relationship looking less like a short trade dispute and more like a long contest over supply chains, technology and industrial policy. Reuters reported last week that Trump’s tariff campaign had not fundamentally changed Beijing’s trade or military behavior. (usnews.com) The trade damage is already visible in the numbers. Peterson Institute for International Economics economist Chad Bown wrote that U.S. goods exports to China in 2025 were 26% lower than in 2024, and that China “essentially stopped buying” U.S. exports in April 2025. (piie.com) Chinese and American business figures are now arguing that tariff cuts and purchase deals will not be enough in May. At a Beijing forum on Sunday, speakers urged both sides to put health care, climate, artificial intelligence governance and other security issues on the summit agenda. (scmp.com) One former diplomat warned of a “malpractice-like” lack of preparation, while Roberta Lipson of United Family Healthcare said the meeting could still produce soybean orders, aircraft orders and more tariff reductions. (scmp.com) So the summit is still on, but the baseline has changed. The tariffs may move again, yet both governments are heading into mid-May treating trade as only one part of a wider rivalry. (usnews.com) (scmp.com)
