Iran war risks global trade
The U.S. and Israeli campaign against Iran has intensified, raising the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz shutdown that could ripple through global trade—not just oil—by disrupting key shipping routes and supply chains. (politicalwire.com) Russia is already picking up geopolitical space and economic gains from higher oil prices as Western unity strains. (firstpost.com) President Trump’s planned summit with Xi Jinping has been postponed amid the crisis, underlining how the conflict is reshaping high‑level diplomacy. (channelnewsasia.com)
The Strait of Hormuz carried about 20 million barrels per day in 2024 — roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption — and around one‑fifth of global LNG trade, making any sustained shutdown immediately material to energy flows. (eia.gov)) Major insurers and the Lloyd’s market have expanded Gulf war‑risk zones and quoted seven‑day war‑risk premiums as high as 7.5–10% of hull value or “double‑digit millions” per high‑risk voyage, sharply raising the cost of sending ships through Gulf waters. (insurance-edge.net)) Global carriers including Maersk, Hapag‑Lloyd and CMA CGM have suspended Hormuz transits and rerouted key ME11/MECL services around the Cape of Good Hope, a diversion that shipping analysts say adds roughly 10–14 sailing days and has pushed some freight rates 30–50% higher on India trade lanes. (maersk.com)) Ports on the Cape route have recorded surges in traffic — Cape Town reported a 112% increase in diverted calls — while analysts tracked as many as ~400 vessels held or delayed in the Gulf of Oman during the peak of the disruption. (thestar.co.za)) Moscow has been loading tankers and expanding seaborne flows — Russia’s exports averaged about 3.44 million barrels per day in the four weeks to March 15 — and Western waivers, including a U.S. 30‑day license to allow Indian refiners to take Russian cargoes, have cleared stranded barrels for sale. (bloomberg.com)) Financial‑market calculations suggest Russia’s fiscal windfall could be on the order of $1.3–$1.9 billion in extra oil export tax receipts in the first 12 days and as much as $150 million of additional revenue per day at current price levels, giving Moscow a measurable cushion from the energy shock. (business-standard.com))
