India, Pakistan mark ceasefire year

The ceasefire held. That is the good news. The harder truth is that almost everything around it still looks broken — the politics, the trust, the story each side tells itself about what happened in May 2025, and now even the water system that used to sit outside open retaliation. One year after India and Pakistan pulled back from four days of strikes and counterstrikes, the line is quiet, but the relationship is not. ### What are they marking this week? They are marking the first anniversary of the ceasefire that took effect on May 10, 2025, after four days of fighting triggered by the April 22, 2025 attack near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir. India answered with Operation Sindoor on May 7, striking what it called terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan responded with its own operation, and both sides stopped after DGMO-level contact and outside diplomatic pressure. (rappler.com) ### So why does it still feel unresolved? Because the ceasefire ended the shooting, not the argument. New Delhi still frames the episode as proof it can strike across the border and impose costs without sliding into full war. Islamabad frames it as proof it can absorb the blow, hit back, and restore deterrence. Those two stories cannot both be the whole story, but they are politically useful at home — so neither side has much incentive to soften them. (channelnewsasia.com) ### Why does the water issue matter so much? Because water is slower than missiles but more destabilizing over time. India put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance in April 2025, and it has not restored the pact a year later. Pakistan has recently pressed India for clarification over reduced Chenab flows, which turns a military crisis into a long-tail dispute over irrigation, hydropower, and treaty obligations. Basically, the old firewall between security conflict and river management is weakening. (aljazeera.com) ### Is this an immediate water cutoff? No — and that distinction matters. India cannot simply turn off the rivers overnight; the basin is governed by geography, infrastructure, and seasonal flow. But “abeyance” still changes the political signal. It tells Pakistan that a treaty once treated as untouchable is now part of coercive statecraft, and that alone raises the temperature. The catch is that even limited disruption or uncertainty can feed nationalist escalation on both sides. (indianexpress.com) ### Where does Bangladesh fit into this? In Dhaka on May 8, Bangladesh and Pakistan signed an MoU on drug trafficking and narcotics abuse that includes intelligence sharing, technical assistance, and coordinated operations. On paper, that is an anti-narcotics agreement. In practice, it is also a small diplomatic signal — Pakistan is widening regional working ties, and India will notice any arrangement that normalizes security cooperation between Islamabad and one of New Delhi’s closest neighbors. (indianexpress.com) ### Does this mean another war is coming? Not necessarily. The fact that the ceasefire has lasted a full year matters. It suggests both governments still see value in avoiding uncontrolled escalation between two nuclear-armed states. But the stabilizers are thinner than they look. If the next crisis arrives through Kashmir, cross-border militancy, or river flows, leaders will be operating in a climate where fewer guardrails feel sacred. (thedailystar.net) ### Why is the politics stuck? Because hard lines paid off domestically. India’s government can point to resolve and retaliation. Pakistan’s military can point to survival and response. Reconciliation, by contrast, offers little immediate political reward and plenty of risk. That leaves the region in an awkward place — not at war, but not rebuilding peace either. (dw.com) ### Bottom line? A year later, the ceasefire looks less like a peace process and more like a pause that held. That is still better than war. But with water disputes rising and regional alignments shifting, the next test may come from a different direction than the last one. (indianexpress.com) (aljazeera.com)